Synopsis:

ANZ maintains a negative bias on both AUD and NZD this week, citing shifts in positioning, fading spot demand, and vulnerability to global risk sentiment. The bank sees downside risks for both AUD/USD and NZD/USD, and does not expect AUD/NZD to climb further.

Key Points:

• AUD/USD Positioning:
  CFTC data suggests short positions on AUD are rebuilding, though still below the 2025 peak of 108k contracts (currently ~80k).
  ANZ’s internal flow data shows neutral net flows after a stretch of consistent AUD buying.

• AUD/USD Outlook:
  ANZ is bearish and sees scope for a retest of the 0.60–0.62 range, citing weak technicals and global headwinds.

• NZD/USD and Risk Sentiment:
  NZD remains highly sensitive to global risk appetite. ANZ's Risk Appetite Index suggests vulnerability to reversal in NZD/USD.
  While CFTC net shorts in NZD have narrowed since early 2025, downside risk persists from external shocks.

• AUD/NZD View:
  ANZ sees downside risk for AUD/NZD. The differential in economic and inflation surprises does not support a higher cross in the near term.

Conclusion:

ANZ continues to favor a defensive stance on both AUD and NZD, expecting renewed downside pressures amid shifting positioning and fragile global sentiment. Neither AUD/USD nor NZD/USD is likely to find near-term support, and AUD/NZD may weaken as relative macro drivers fade.