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Jul 28 - 12:55 PM

Bank of America: We're Closer to, If Not Beyond, Pain Thresholds in JPY; Long JPY vs. CHF & CAD

By eFXdata  —  Jul 28 - 11:30 AM

Bank of America Global Research maintains a long JPY exposure vs CHF and CAD.

"Several BoJ sources articles last week suggested officials are open to a faster hiking pace and alert to upside inflation risks. Indeed, our economists' inflation expectations indicator rose sharply in 2Q '26, supporting the case for an earlier rate hike  Fresh highs in USD/JPY may have prompted this "jawboning" but ultimately the impact was limited. This is partly because there was no mention of the government's view on monetary policy, which so far has signaled caution on hikes," BofA notes.

"Still, we are closer to, if not beyond, pain thresholds in JPY & JGB levels that may elicit a pivot from the government. The BoJ's communication at this week's meeting may provide clues but also the June meeting minutes (published on 5 Aug) that will update views from government representatives. We maintain long JPY exposure based on the improvement in balance of payments vs. 2025, focusing on non-USD crosses (CHF & CAD), where carry is less punitive," BofA adds.

Source:
BofA Global Research

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