EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR has moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways.
EUR peeked above 1.1400 once again on Friday (high of 1.1408) but eased off quickly to end the day little changed at 1.1374 (+0.04%). We previously held the view that the “odds for a break of 1.1440 are slightly more than even” but highlighted only Friday (01 Mar) that “unless EUR closes above 1.1400 by end of today’s NY session, we would shift our view to that EUR has moved into a consolidation phase”. In other words, the recent mild upward pressure has eased and from here, we expect EUR to trade sideways, likely between 1.1310 and 1.1425.
GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Further GBP strength is still likely but 1.3365 may not come into the picture so soon.
GBP dropped to a low of 1.3172 last Friday (01 Mar), just a couple of pips above our 1.3170 ‘key support’. While the ‘positive’ outlook for GBP that started on 20 Feb (spot at 1.3070) is still intact, upward momentum has been dented and the prospect for GBP to rise above 1.3365 has diminished. That said, confirmation of a short-term top is only upon a break of 1.3170. Meanwhile, we continue to hold the view that “further GBP strength is still likely but 1.3365 may not come into the picture so soon” (same view since last Wednesday, 27 Feb). However, in order to rejuvenate the flagging upward momentum, GBP has to move and stay above 1.3295 within these few days or the risk of a break of 1.3170 would increase quickly.
AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): AUD has moved into a consolidation phase.
There is not much to add to last Friday’s (01 Mar) update. As highlighted, despite the uptick in downward momentum, it is too soon to expect the start of sustained directional move in AUD. We view the current price action as ‘part of a consolidation phase’ and expect AUD to trade sideways within a 0.7055/0.7170 range. Looking forward, only a break of last month’s low near 0.7055 would suggest AUD is ready to move lower in a sustained manner.
NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): NZD is expected to trade sideways.
There is not much to add to last Friday’s update (01 Mar, spot at 0.6815). Upward momentum has waned as NZD failed to break clearly above 0.6900 convincingly. From here, NZD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 0.6740 and 0.6870.
USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD is expected to advance but may find it difficult to break solid 112.00/20 zone.
While we highlighted last Friday (01 Mar, spot at 111.40) that “USD is ready to advance further in the coming days”, the subsequent rapid pace of rise that quickly tested the solid 112.00/20 resistance zone came as a surprise (high of 112.07 on Friday). Short-term indicators are severely overbought and for now, we continue to hold the view that USD may find it difficult to break the solid 112.00/20 resistance zone (at least within these couple of days). Looking forward, a clear break of this resistance zone would suggest that USD is ready to tackle 112.60 (the next resistance above this level is at 113.00, a rather crucial mid-term level). All in, USD is expected to stay underpinned as long the ‘key support’ at 110.95 is intact (level was at 110.65 last Friday).