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Jul 28 - 01:55 PM

AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD Resilience To Risk Aversion Bodes Well For Bulls

By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 28 - 12:15 PM

AUD/USD longs should be pleased with the aussie's ability to withstand a usually toxic combination of lower equities, higher U.S. Treasury yields and safe-haven yen buying.

Since hitting a 15-month peak on July 22 AUD/USD has dipped, but not by much.
The 10-day moving average has exerted bullish influence to help limit dips and Tuesday's slide was unable to break hourly support from July 27.

AUD/USD still has several advantages that could help propel it to new trend highs.

Despite rising U.S. Treasury yields US10YT=RR, fed fund futures prices are not falling, implying investors expect Fed rates to remain near zero and then turn slightly negative in August 2021 FFQ1.

Buoyant commodities contribute to AUD/USD upside risks.
Copper HGv1 and iron-ore DCIOc2, which AUD/USD is correlated to, price rises have paused but are holding near recent highs and have entered a consolidation phases, which are bullish signs.

AUD/USD technicals highlight the upside risks.
Daily and monthly RSIs imply upside momentum is intact and AUD/USD trades above the 61.8% Fibo of 0.8136-0.5510.

Though the July 22 daily high and April 2019 monthly high remain impediments, a break of the latter could open the door to 0.7285/95.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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