• EUR/USD has become trapped within 1.14-17 during US/Iran conflict

• In this period traders totally unwound bets they held on pair rising

• Despite huge selling the correction of a stretched rise was modest

• EUR/USD 1.2084 in Feb fell to 1.1409 in March

• A 38.2% retracement of 1.0125-1.2084 rally is 1.1336

• Uptrend intact and refreshed by correction with no longs to stop a rise

• USD's uninspiring performance during war may be followed by a drop

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EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)