• EUR/USD slipped from the familiar 1.1400s to 1.1364 Thursday, before settling into a 1.1375-1.1400 range Friday

• Post Fed and 1-year low at 1.1325 and 1.1300 option barriers are key to deeper declines toward 1.1100

• 1.1104 is 50% Fibo retrace of 2025-2026 rally from 1.0125-1.2084, 38.2% is 1.1336

• FX options on alert for next week's Fed with USD calls in demand - they would benefit from lower EUR/USD

• Option risk reversals maintain a higher premium for downside over upside strikes, too

• However, option implied volatility retreats from Thursdays highs and remains close to 2026 lows - no panic yet
EUR/USD daily chart (EBS)


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)