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Dec 20 - 02:36 PM
USD/JPY's Risk-On Rise Has North Korean Black Swan Event Risk
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 20 - 12:15 PM
  • USD/JPY's risk-on rally on US-China trade could be disrupted

  • North Korea's set a yearend deadline to restart nuclear talks w US

  • US Defense Secretary Esper says he's hopeful regarding talks nW1N26N003

  • But if talks don't happen, nuclear/missile tests may resume nL4N28U27S

  • A North Korean ICBM test could see haven yen higher in risk-off reaction

  • At moment, USD/JPY's staved off a bigger correction nL1N28U0OR post tops

  • Record low 1-mo vols favor shorting yen, but also make risk hedges cheap

Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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