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Aug 22 - 09:48 PM
GBP/USD - Current Strength More About Positioning Than News
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 07:25 PM
  • Flat, opened +1.1% after misinterpreting Merkel comments nL5N25I4DR
  • Market is short, so cable is vulnerable to occasional topside corrections
  • Irish back stop remains the sticking point for no deal Brexit - no progress
  • Daily charts suggest short term base in place, weekly charts remain bearish
  • Closed above 1.2151 21 DMA with a bullish 5 DMA cross of 10 & 21 DMAs
  • Close above 1.2309, 38.2% June/August fall would be positive for next week

gbp aug 23 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 08:36 PM
AUD/USD - Opens Lower As NZD Weakness And EM Selloff Weigh
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 06:25 PM
  • AUD/USD closed 0.37% lower, as 0.67% fall in NZD/USD and EM selling weighed
  • EM ETF (EEM) fell 1.3%, as global growth concerns continue to hurt sentiment
  • Volumes light, as market awaits key speech from Fed Chair Powell
  • AUD/USD up slighlty in Asia after WH advisor said trade talks productive
  • AUD/USD support at Aug 14 low at 0.6735 and break targets 0.6677
  • Sellers ahead of 0.6800 with resistance at 21-day MA at 0.6794
  • Range trading expected in Asia ahead of Powell speech

eur/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 05:00 PM
USD: Here Is Why 98.48 Resistance On The USD Index 'DXY' Is What Investors Are Watching Now - Citi
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 03:20 PM

Citi discusses the USD Index 'DXY' technical outlook and highlights the importance of the the 98.48 resistance for the USD direction over the coming weeks.

"Markets continue to watch 98.48 resistance on the USD Index (DXY) which if broken, could open up a return to the August highs at 98.93.

However, technical indicators also point out that the monthly chart is exhibiting potential momentum divergence similar to that seen in January 2017 (triple monthly momentum divergence.) IF this were to complete, it would suggest the danger that a top is in for the DXY. This indicator has been very successful in signaling turns in the past," Citi notes. 

"The fundamental key driver of USD direction though remains US – China trade talks. A possible trade deal in September would likely signal renewed weakness in USD. Absent that, we could see an elevated USD for the remainder of the year even if the Fed embarks on a gradual rate cut exercise in line with the Citi analysts view," Citi adds. 

Citi Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 03:48 PM
GBP/USD - Gets A Lift From Upbeat Merkel Backstop Comments
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 01:30 PM
  • GBP/USD firm into NY close +1.07% at 1.2255; NorAm range 1.2273-1.2138
  • Holds gain as more Merkel comments on backstop give bulls hope
  • Merkel's backstop comments provide further boost for GBP/USD
  • Abv 30-DMA (1.2258), next res 1.2309/1.2399, 38.2/50% Fibs of 1.2784-1.2015
  • Former res at 21/10DMA (1.2160/1.2112) now support
  • EUR/GBP -1.02% at 0.9055, Thurs range 0.9156-0.9029; softer Brexit, exp'd ECB cuts weigh

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 02:36 PM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD On Defense In Approach To Jackson Hole
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 10:00 AM

EUR/USD is holding near the middle of its overnight range, around 1.1090, as markets await Friday's Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Powell, which could pose significant risks to the euro after Wednesday's FOMC minutes release came out less dovish tack than markets expected. Currently, the market is pricing nW1N24C01M in at least two more Fed rate cuts by December 2020, with FEDWATCH on Eikon showing -59bps of easing by the Dec meeting.
If Powell clings to his mid-cycle view on rate adjustments, EUR/USD should slide to new 2019 lows and the effects of a stronger USD, akin to a rate U.S. hike, will be seen as slowing the U.S. economy -- but also muting global growth. For now, significant options interest between 1.1000 and 1.1200, Click here

, is keeping EUR/USD anchored by 1.1100. In the event of a hawkishly interpreted message from Powell, the recent low by 1.1027 will likely give way, putting the May 19, 2017 weekly low at 1.0923 in focus.

EUR Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 01:24 PM
NZD/USD: Still On Track To Pressure Trend Channel Support At 0.6335 - NAB
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 10:11 AM

NAB discusses NZD/USD technical outlook and maintains a medium-term bearish bias.

The MT downtrend remains beyond question. MT momentum does however imply limitations to the decline. The recent low in price and thus implies that further new lows may struggle to hold. While weekly closes remain below 0.6480 the MT downtrend remains in play," NAB notes. 

"We anticipate NZDUSD breaking the multi-year low at 0.6378 in the coming one to two weeks and will watch trend channel support around 0.6335 for signs of an interim base," NAB adds. 

NAB Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - Merkel's Backstop Comments Provide Further Boost For GBP/USD
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 09:50 AM
  • GBP/USD puts in new 3-wk high at 1.2265, after Merkel Backstop comment
  • Germany's Merkel: Brexit backstop solution possible by Oct. 31 nL5N25I46Y
  • GBP/USD IMM specs covering extreme shorts on softer Brexit tone GBPNETUSD=
  • Pair finds res near 30-DMA 1.2258, backs off high settles near 1.2240
  • Res Daily Kijun 1.2287, 1.2399 50% Fib of 1.2784-1.2015; 10-DMA 1.2110, fmr res, now supports

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 11:00 AM
AUD/USD: In A 100-Pips Range For More Than 2 Weeks; Needs To Break Range For Direction - UOB
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 09:01 AM

UOB Research discusses AUD/USD technical outlook and maintains a tactical neutral bias.

"AUD is expected to trade sideways. AUD spent another day ‘going nowhere’ as it traded in a tight range before closing marginally higher at 0.6781 (+0.04%).

The protracted consolidation phase (AUD has traded sideways within a 100 pips range for more than 2 weeks now) has resulted in ‘neutral’ momentum indicators and the prospect for a sustained recovery is not high," UOB notes. 

"In other words, unless AUD register a daily closing out of the expected 0.6730/0.6845 range, it could continue to trade sideways for a while more," UOB adds. 

UOB Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 09:48 AM
EUR/USD: Tactically Bearish For A Break Of 1.10 Towards 1.0950 - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 08:28 AM

MUFG Research discusses EUR/USD tactical outlook and adopts a bearish bias expecting the pair to trade downward in a 1.12-1.0950 range.

"The euro continues to trade close to recent lows against the US dollar with the pair potentially requiring a fresh catalyst to break below support at the 1.1000-level.

The main event risk in the week ahead for the pair will be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. If Fed Chair Powell again fails to meet market expectations for more aggressive easing it could encourage a stronger US dollar in the week ahead," MUFG notes. 

"In the Europe, the data flow has remained more disappointing although PMI surveys in August surprised to the upside. It keeps pressure on the ECB to deliver a package of easing measures next month which is weighing on the euro. It is too soon to expect a significant loosening of fiscal policy which would be more euro supportive," MUFG adds. 

BTMU Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 08:36 AM
AUD/USD - Fading Failures To Recent Highs Keeping AUD Wrong Footed
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 06:30 AM
  • AUD into its third week of range trading and little sign of a breakout
  • Range 0.6735-0.6822 and with offers appearing camped close to 0.6800
  • Monthly through to daily charts still argue case for selling topside fails
  • Market displaying caution against global growth concerns and Jackson Hole
  • RBA outlook unclear but some hawkish undertones within latest minutes
  • However, rate cuts still the underlying risk here nRUAKJEF6I

AUD/USD Daily Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 07:24 AM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-Sterling Bargains Can Be Found, But Don't Get Greedy
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 05:40 AM

Market chatter suggests some investors and traders are beginning to eye value levels in sterling after the sharp depreciation since spring.
Indeed, a drop to levels approaching the GBP/USD Aug.
1, 2015, low might attract bargain hunters.
But despite the magnitude of cable's decline -- 9% since March -- the growing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit hangs over the market and corrective rebounds are likely to meet strong headwinds.
With the stand-off between the European Union and new British PM Boris Johnson becoming more entrenched, the risks to sterling remain high.
Brussels looks unwilling to shift its stance on the Irish backstop as the Oct.
31 exit date looms, and without a last-ditch attempt to concoct a deal, both the UK economy and the pound stand to be major losers.
The clever money is probably side-lined, waiting for clarity in the Brexit terms.
Near-term adjustments might trouble the 1.2250 high from July 31, but scope beyond looks limited.

GBP/USD Daily Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 06:12 AM
GBP/USD - Consolidation Before The Next Drop, 1.2250 Remains Key
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 03:50 AM
  • Price beginning to churn within a tight range and direction lost
  • Still favour the downside while the July 31 1.2250 high is intact
  • Initial resistance 1.2155 21DMA line and Aug 20 outside day high at 1.2180
  • Daily momentum has marginally flipped to negative
  • Slow stochs are attempting to turn down from o/b levels
  • We are short from 1.2110, just off-side, with 1.1910 obj and 1.2210 stop

GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Coming Data Looks Set To Trigger EUR/USD Test Of Key 1.1000 Support
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 02:40 AM
  • German PMI at 7.30GMT f/c 43.0 (recession territory) from 43.2 in July
  • French PMI @ 7.15GMT f/c a more healthy 49.5 from 49.7 (contracting sector)
  • EZ manufacturing @ 8GMT f/c 46.2. Services f/c 53.0 Composite 51.2
  • Fed divided wanted to avoid appearing on path for more cuts
  • EUR/USD eases to 1.1080 and then 1.1076 today. Aug 16/20 lows 1.1065/66
  • Below cues test 2019 low 1.1027 and then depth support ahead 1.1000 options
  • U.S. PMI at 13.45GMT f/c 50.5. If you're trading data, you're short EUR/USD

EUR/USD weekly Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 03:48 AM
EUR/USD - Building For A Downside Break Below Key Level
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 02:15 AM
  • Slowing of the bear run from Aug 13 1.1229 high in the high 1.10s
  • Forming a bearish continuation pattern, could do with a downside break soon
  • Still see potential for a drop under the 1.10 level after consolidation
  • We remain short from 1.1215 for 1.1050 objective and profit stop at 1.1120
  • 10DMA crosses below the 21DMA, bearish, and ichimoku bearishly aligned too
  • Daily momentum flips back to negative but slow stochs are on the rise
  • Loss consolidation likely Thursday, 1.1065 and 1.1114 the levels to watch

EUR/USD Trader

EUR/USD Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Range Extends, But Charts Show Base Is The Weak Side
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 22 - 12:40 AM
  • Off 0.2%, as Asia failed to run with positive Wall Street - E-mini S&P -0.1%
  • Caution on global growth and US yields into Jackson Hole weighs
  • AUD/JPY, an FX barometer of risk, trades -0.4%, Nikkei flat, AsiaxJP -0.4%
  • In the third week of a 0.6735/0.6822 range, leaving neutral daily charts
  • Weekly and monthly 5, 10 & 21 moving averages fall with the primary trend
  • Setup suggests selling a topside failure towards the 0.6822 range top

aud aug 22 Click here

aud2 aug 22 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 22 - 12:12 AM
EUR/USD - On Verge Of Downtrend Channel Before Eurozone PMIs
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 10:10 PM
  • EUR/USD on the verge of reaffirming negative chart cue on EBS
  • Thurs closing below 1.1088 confirms Bollinger downtrend channel
  • Drop toward last month's more than 2-yr low of 1.1027 could follow
  • European Markit PMIs due later could add to bearish EUR sentiment
  • Eurozone manufacturing PMI expected to dip to 46.2 from 46.5
  • Central bankers at Jackson Hole will address dour outlook for economies

EUR: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 21 - 11:00 PM
EUR/USD - Strikes Contain - Event Risk Is Negative At Present
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 08:30 PM
  • Touch firmer in a low key Asian start after closing off just 0.1%
  • External risks blamed for a an uncertain German outlook nL5N25H5AZ
  • France's take on Brexit, suggests no deal is a real possibility nL5N25H589
  • Italian political manoeuvring looks to avoid snap election nL5N25H4BT
  • Strikes - 1.1040-60 2.55BLN support - 1.1095-00 1.4BLN, 1.1135-40 960M cap
  • Negative charts - 5, 10 & 21 daily, weekly and monthly MAs track south
  • First supports at 1.1065, this week's low then 1.1027, the August trend base

eur aug 22 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 21 - 09:48 PM
GBP/USD - Strong Data, But No Deal Brexit A Real Possibility
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 07:45 PM
  • +0.1% after closing off 0.4%, as a hopes of a Brexit deal fade nL5N25H2AE
  • UK pay deals hit 2.6% in 3 months to July, 10-year high XpertHR nL5N25H4N3
  • Puts the BoE in a difficult position going into the Brexit end game
  • Positive 5 & 10 DMA cross, neutral momentum studies - mixed signals
  • Close above 1.2154 21 DMA would suggest a period of consolidation
  • Weekly & monthly 5, 10 & 21 moving averages fall, with the primary trend
  • Setup targets another test of the 1.2015 August low

gbp aug 22 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 21 - 08:36 PM
AUD/USD - Going Nowhere Fast As Factors Offset
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 06:20 PM
  • AUD/USD opening Asia within 10 pips of 0.6775 for fourth straight day
  • Risk in risk appetite supports, while higher US yields capping for now
  • Resistance @ 10-day MA @ 0.6805 and break would shift pressure to the upside
  • More resistance at 38.2 of 0.7082/0.667 at 0.6832 and break would be bullish
  • Support at Aug 14 low at 0.6735 and break targets trend low at 0.6677
  • Asian equity markets and AUD/JPY flows key to moves in Asia

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Aug 21 - 05:00 PM
USD: FOMC Minutes: Little New Info; Sticking To Call For 4 Rate Cuts In Total - Nordea
First appeared on eFXplus on Aug 21 - 03:35 PM

Nordea Research discusses its reaction to today's FOMC minutes from the July meeting.

"Everyone was looking for clues as to how many cuts there will be in what the Fed calls a mid-cycle adjustment. Few answers were given and markets did not react. Everyone now awaits Powell’s speech this Friday," Nordea notes. 

"So what is the conclusion from this? It’s ongoing, so that would probably mean at least one more cut, we think. So we stick to our forecast of a new adjustment down in September. But after that, we will just have to wait and see how the economy evolves. The Fed is still data dependent. We think more cuts will be needed, and have pencilled in 4 cuts in total," Nordea adds.

Nordea Research/Market Commentary
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