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Feb 03 - 12:12 AM

AUD/USD - Chances Of An RBA Cut Rise, But Remain A Long Shot

By Andrew M Spencer  —  Feb 02 - 10:35 PM
  • Flat and busy, as China return with action to calm markets nL4N2A30QM

  • Mixed reaction, E-mini S&P +0.7%, SSEC and Dalian iron ore off 8%

  • Asian currencies weaker, majors consolidate - USD/CNH up just 0.2%

  • OIS price an RBA cut at 22.6%, up from 11.8% on Friday - cut unlikely

  • Virus and continued bush fires suggest RBA's dovish bias will be retained

  • Charts - momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track south - bearish setup

  • Initial significant support is the 0.6670 October and 2019 base

  • Sustained break of 0.6722 5 DMA, would undermine the downside bias

aud 3 feb 3 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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