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Aug 08 - 11:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Downside Risks Are Trumping Upside Factors

By Christopher Romano  —  Aug 08 - 10:05 AM

EUR/USD's down trend is intact and bearish risks are overwhelming upside considerations which could lead to an extension of the pair's slide.

July exports and imports for China, which the euro zone economy is heavily dependent upon, were well below estimates which stoked concerns for slower global economic growth.

A report from the ECB indicated consumers expect inflation to keep slowing over the next months and years, but that consumer purchasing power remains downbeat.

The report helped sink euro zone rates FEIH4 and yields DE2YT=RR as investors lean towards the ECB taking a less hawkish stance.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he isn't expecting inflation to spike back up which resulted in softer U.S. yields US2YT=RR and rates SRAZ3.

In any event, the dollar still managed to increase its yield advantage over euro as investors placed more weight on the negative euro zone factors.

U.S.-German 2-year spreads US2DE2=RR widened towards -168bps which helped weigh down EUR/USD.

EUR/USD technicals reinforce the bearish outlook.
The down trend off July's high is intact, RSIs are falling and EUR/USD trades below its 10- and 21-DMAs.

CPI and PPI risks loom.
Upside surprises to both could drive EUR/USD lower.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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