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Dec 08 - 02:55 PM

GBP: Going Short GBP/CHF Targeting 1.11 - ANZ

By eFXdata  —  Dec 08 - 01:30 PM

ANZ Research likes short GBP/CHF exposure in spot targeting a move towards 1.11.

"We do not expect the broad November 2022 rally in the GBP to be long lasting given the UK’s weak economic fundamentals: its twin deficits, high inflation and rising interest rates. The Bank of England predicts a two-year recession ahead. While yields and improving risk sentiment have driven recent upside in the GBP, the yield differential with the CHF is expected to continue narrowing," ANZ notes. 

"Further, a key driver of FX is real yields which are more supportive for the CHF. Short GBP/CHF is a defensive, lowbeta trade to hedge any downside from deteriorating economic conditions in the UK and Europe. Consensus expectation of the Swiss central bank’s terminal rate is 1.5%," ANZ adds. 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary

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