• NY opened near 1.1575 after EUR/UD rallied 1.1557-1.1590 in Europe's morning

• The pair fell early on firm USD, US yields & an upward move in oil

• 1.1560 was neared but the drop stalled, buyers then emerged as risk improved

• Hopes for the U.S. and Iran to sign a peace deal put a bid under riskier assets

• USD, US yields, oil moved downward while stocks, gold & silver rallied

• EUR/USD neared 1.1585 then sat near 1.1575 late, it was down -0.05% late

• A daily doji candle formed, suggests consolidation of gains off Thursday's low

• Falling RSIs, pair's hold below the 10- & 21-DMAs are concerns for EUR/USD bulls
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7044 after AUD/USD rallied during Europe's morning session

• The pair neared 0.7030 as USD, US yields & oil

moved upward

• AUD/USD then rallied on hopes a US-Iran peace deal will be signed

• USD, yields, oil softened while gold , silver , stocks rallied

• USD/CNH slid toward 6.7630 after rallying toward 6.7660 earleir in the session

• AUD/USD hit 0.7060 then neared 0.7050, it traded near flat late in the day

• A daily long legged doji formed which gives AUD/USD bulls some comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ near session high in NY afternoon, +0.01% at 1.3417; NY range 1.3423-1.3390

• Optimism over US-Iran deal lifting risk ex-USD; dollar steady awaiting details

• Pair continues to sled around the middle of the recent 1.33-1.35 range

• Peace will likely boost GBP/USD, gains likely tempered amid UK policy, political risks

• UK PM Starmer says he has not lost authority, will fight to stay in job

• Fed, BoE expected to hold next week; BoE to hold rates in 2026, minority see a hike

• GBP$ res at bruised 200-DMA by 1.3420, Friday high 1.3426, 1.3487 daily cloud top

• Supt 1.3383 Friday low, 1.3325 daily low 1.3325, 1.3298 lower 30-d Bolli

• Long tail in Thurs/Friday candlestick hints at growing support

Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research previews next week's June SNB meeting.

"We continue to expect the SNB to remain comfortably on hold at 0.0% at next week's meeting, in line with consensus and market pricing. We anticipate a slight upgrade to the conditional inflation forecast for 2026 and 2027, as the energy price shock now looks more persistent than in March. Further ahead we expect the policy rate to remain on hold," GS notes.

"We see risks tilted slightly towards hikes in case of a re-escalation or stronger pass-through into core inflation, in which case the SNB could build some policy space," GS adds.

The near-term outlook for sterling has reverted to caution as fluid geopolitical developments remain a top source of market uncertainty.

The recent rise in risk appetite following President Donald Trump's announcement regarding a potential U.S.-Iran deal had supported the pound, which rebounded from recent lows near the lower end of its 1.33-1.35 range, stabilizing around 1.34. However, confidence in an accord remains fragile. Iran's FARS news agency cited a source close to the negotiating team flatly dismissing reports of a Sunday signing ceremony in Geneva as false, which has tempered GBP/USD gains.

The reaction in the oil market, which rallied off session lows on the FARS news but remains down 2.5% on the day, underscores the link between oil prices and inflation expectations. Elevated oil prices have implications for UK and global inflation, and a swift resolution to the U.S.-Iran situation could help ease long-term inflationary pressures. This may provide the Bank of England with more leeway to adopt a dovish stance on interest rates, as Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated that the BoE is not in a rush to hike rates and is closely monitoring data for signs of second-round inflation effects.

Broader UK political and fiscal concerns also loom large, potentially capping any bullish momentum for GBP/USD above 1.35, especially as traders eye May highs in the mid-1.36s. Thus, while the short-term outlook for sterling is positive, significant headwinds remain.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses its USD bias into next week's June FOMC meeting.

"We stay bullish USD (vs. EUR & CAD) but recognize two-way risk heading into the FOMC meeting," BofA notes.

"We think a hawkish outcome is more likely, but Fed pricing & USD longs reflect this, making a dovish surprise the "pain trade". Warsh will be the focus but also the SEP projections - recent communication suggests the median FOMC view has turned hawkish. It would be a surprise if this does not translate to a meaningfully higher dot plot distribution," BofA adds.

• Cable hugs 1.3400 as it consolidates gains from 1.3325 (Thursday low)

• 1.3400 approximates to mid-point of the past week's 1.3307-1.3483 range

• Early NY session high was 1.3417 - which is also the 200-day moving average

• UK PM Starmer says he has not lost authority, will fight to stay in job

• Defence resignation exposes spending bind for Starmer - and any challengers

• Burnham set to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership, if he wins by-election

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research flags downside risk for USD/CAD in H2 targeting the pair at 1.35 by year-end.

"Risks initially flagged for 2026 have in the end not materialised, but new ones have  emerged, although these have hardly altered the course of the CAD so far this  year, which has largely matched our expectations," CACIB notes.

"Looking ahead, we stick to our  forecasts that see USD/CAD going into H226 around current levels and ending the  year near 1.35 as money markets may face a reality check regarding 2027,  especially in the US. That may not necessarily be enough to spur a major  turnaround in market positioning that has been consistently long USD/CAD in the  past two years on the likely basis of a historically large interest rate gap, while our  VALFeX estimate of around 1.32. long-term forecasts embed some mean reversal to our downwardly-revised," CACIB adds.

HSBC Research flags the scope for another wave of JPY intervention by Japan's MoF.

"According to CFTC data, as of 2 June, the market's short JPY positioning via futures and options has moved to a Z-score of -1.94, reminding us of stretched levels seen in mid-2024 just before the MoF intervened. We think the MoF may soon intervene again," HSBC notes.

Admittedly, unless the Bank of Japan implements hawkish rate hikes, and/or oil prices fall materially and the Fed resumes its rate cut cycle, we doubt intervention alone can shift the USD-JPY trajectory into a downtrend. Our base case (assuming two hikes by BoJ in June and December - which are nearly fully priced in by the OIS market; oil prices normalising at year-end/early 2027; and no rate changes by the Fed) is for USD-JPY to be trapped in a sideways range, capped by intervention but supported by negative real rates in Japan. We forecast USD-JPY at 155 for end-2026," HSBC adds.

• Cable has traded a 39 pip range since the London open; 1.33835-1.34225

• 1.34225 is 3.5 pips shy of Asia high; 11 pips shy of Thursday's intra-week high

• Risk-sensitive pound supported by prospect of US-Iran peace memorandum

• US-Iran peace memorandum could be signed on Sunday in Geneva, source says

• Gilt yields fall sharply on prospect of US-Iran peace deal. UK GDP fell 0.1% in April

• BoE survey shows British public's inflation expectations surged on Iran war

GBPUSD

• EUR/CHF trades on 0.92 handle before Swiss referendum Sunday

• Swiss to vote on whether to implement 10 million population cap

• 0.9234 was EBS six-week high for EUR/CHF on Wednesday

• EUR/CHF might rise to 0.94 if Switzerland votes to implement population cap

• SNB is expected to keep its policy rate at zero next Thursday (June 18)

• ECB policymakers keep July hike on the table

EURCHF


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Dollar steadies as traders question prospects for near-term ceasefire

• USD/JPY has seen a 159.95-160.38 range, on Friday, according to EBS data

• That after spot staged a partial recovery on Thursday after slumping to 159.51

• Thursday's losses induced dip buyers, above Thursday's 160.59 high would be bullish

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY, EUR/JPY crashes below +0.5 (relationship breaks down)

Daily Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

June 12 (Reuters) - There are several reasons why EUR/USD could be set for a bigger recovery and FX traders can use a simple option strategy to capture potential gains. Thursday's candlestick left a long tail, pointing to a rejection of the downside. This suggests scope for initial gains to 1.1633 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of the 1.1849 to 1.1500 (April to June) EBS fall. Downside momentum also failed to sustain breaks on Monday and Thursday below the 1.1513 Fibo, a 76.4% retrace of 1.1409 to 1.1849 (March to April) rise. This raises the risk of a bear trap - when a market breaks below a technical level but then reverses, usually a bullish sign.

Seasonality is another support. EUR/USD has risen in 16 of the last 26 years, so a close above this month's 1.1655 open would reinforce that pattern. Those looking to position for the upside can buy a one-week 1.1570 call option for 40 pips, priced with spot at 1.1564. Profit potential is unlimited if spot rises above the 1.1610 break-even point before the June 19 expiry. Losses are limited to the premium paid.
Daily Chart


Fenics Pricing Grid


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD has traded a 29.5 pip range thus far Friday; 0.7024-0.70535

• The top of that range is 1.5 pips shy of Thursday's two-day high

• Thursday peak was scaled as safe-haven USD fell after Trump cancelled strikes on Iran

• 0.6979 was two-month low before the planned strikes were cancelled

• Trump says Iran war deal close. RBA rate hold expected next week (Tuesday)

• CFTC data at 1930 GMT to show if net AUD long shrank again in week to June 9

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 29 pip range thus far Friday; 1.3397-1.3426

• The top of that range is 7.5 pips shy of Thursday's intra-week high

• Thursday peak was scaled as safe-haven dollar fell after Trump cancelled strikes on Iran

• 1.3325 was three-day low for GBP/USD before the planned strikes were cancelled

• Trump says Iran war deal close. UK economy shrank by 0.1% in April, as expected

• Healey's surprise resignation fuels questions about UK PM Starmer's future

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian mining stocks rise as much as 4%, hitting its biggest intraday pct gain since April 8

• Sub-index touches its highest level since June 5

• Benchmark up 1.9%

• Miners surge on the back of firm copper prices amid easing oil prices and hopes that a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran is nearing an end [MET/L]

• Heavyweights BHP Group and Rio Tinto jump 3.4% and 2.9%, respectively

• YTD, AXMM up 16.7%, AXJO flat
(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY gains 0.2% in Asia as Trump-Iran back-and-forth adds to uncertainty

• Supported by strong demand below 160.00 and conflicting Iran deal headlines

• Opened at 159.995, rallied steadily, traded in a 159.95-160.31

• Traders cautious ahead of next week's risk events

• BOJ rate decision Tue, hawkish 25 bps hike to 31-year high likely

• Fed decision Wed, statement key; G-7 summit in France June 15-17

• Japanese intervention threat likely to cap dollar below 160.60-70

• Support 159.75-80, 159.50
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.3% Fri as positive impact from U.S.-Iran peace progress fades

• Trump talks up peace deal prospects after pausing planned attacks on Iran

• Iranian sources confirm intensified effort towards reaching preliminary deal

• AUD unlikely to extend topside move beyond 0.7080 resistance

• RBA policy meeting outcome due Tue, no change to 4.35% OCR expected

• Range Asia 0.7030-535, support 0.6834, resistance 0.7080 0.7200 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks rise 5.3%, on track for best day since April 8 if gains hold

• Sub-index rises after five straight sessions of losses

• Bullion prices jumped on Thursday with U.S. President Donald Trump calling off planned military strikes on Iran eased fears of oil-driven inflation and elevated interest rates [GOL/]

• Sector heavyweights Northern Star Resources adds 4.7% while Evolution Mining gains 6.2%

• AXGD down 4.2% this week; loses 18.9% on YTD-basis including current moves
(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY rallies 0.15% in Asia after closing 0.4% lower on Thursday

• Sharp lower U.S. yields, decline in oil prices on Iran deal optimism weigh

• Trump said US and Iran could sign a peace deal as soon as this weekend

• But Iran says no final decision has been made on a possible agreement

• Conflicting reports likely to keep USD range bound ahead of weekend

• Cautious trading ahead of risk events next week likely

• BO rate decision Tue, 25bps hike expected; Fed decision Wed, statement key

• Japanese intervention threat likely to cap dollar below 160.50

• Support 159.75-80, 159.50; Thu range 159.51-160.595, Asia 159.95-160.20
US Inflation gauges

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD +1.1% from Thur 0.5770 low as hopes for Iran peace deal escalate

• Iranian sources confirm efforts to reach preliminary deal are intensifying

• Trump claims peace deal close after cancelling planned strikes on Iran

• DXY -0.4%, Brent crude -4.2% & U.S. equities climb as risk sentiment lifts

• U.S. initial jobless claims 229k (poll 219k), May PPI +1.1% m/m (poll 0.7%)

• NZ May manufacturing PMI 49.9 (prior 50.5), elec card retail sales due Mon

• NZD pushing upper hourly Bollinger band, needs further catalyst to extend

• Range NZ 0.5819-43, support 0.5680 5580, resistance 0.5990-95 0.6012
NZD Daily 55-DMA


NZD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD +0.7% from Thur 1.1503 low as ECB hikes & Middle East tensions ease

• ECB raises interest rates 25 bps in response to Iran-war driven inflation

• Trump cancels attacks on Iran, claims peace deal could be signed shortly

• Iranian sources flag intensified efforts to reach preliminary deal

• DXY -0.4%, Brent crude -4.2% to $89.20 a barrel as risk appetite improves

• U.S. initial jobless claims 229k (poll 219k), May PPI +1.1% m/m (poll 0.7%)

• EUR pushing upper hourly Bollinger band, progress higher likely to slow

• Overnight range 1.1503-90, support 1.1500 1.1409, resistance 1.1850 1.1930
EUR Daily 55-DMA


US Inflation Studies


EUR Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research discusses GBP outlook ahead of next Thursday's June BoE meeting.

"The upcoming Makerfield by-election on 18 June is the next key event for UK's political and fiscal outlook. There are many scenarios, but if Andy Burnham were to win, he would be eligible to stand in a Labour leadership contest, in which a Survation poll indicates he is favourite to win. A loss for Burnham could mean either status quo or a leadership challenge with an alternative candidate standing from the soft left. Political/policy uncertainty can weigh on growth," BofA notes.

"GBP vol premium remains muted with front-end vol being driven by the BoE rate decision and the proximity of the FOMC. Vol remains the best vehicle to express political concerns. We remain short EUR/GBP, but the case for hedging with long vega positions seems prudent. In rates, we look for 2s10s curve steepening in Gilts. At the front, pricing implies more than our base case of two Bank Rate hikes to terminal, leaving room to rally. Failure by the MPC to validate the hiking path (as currently priced in) at next Thursday's meeting should reinforce the steepener. Further out, the long-end should trade sensitively to political risks into the by-election," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD +1.0% from Thur 0.6979 low after U.S. cancels strikes on Iran

• Iranian sources say work towards preliminary deal with U.S. has intensified

• Trump claims that peace deal could be signed as soon as this weekend

• U.S. initial jobless claims 229k (poll 219k), May PPI +1.1% m/m (poll 0.7%)

• RBA policy meeting outcome due Tue, no change to 4.35% OCR anticipated

• AUD pushing upper hourly Bollinger band, buying may dissipate ahead 0.7080

• Overnight range 0.6979-0.7055, support 0.6834, resistance 0.7080 0.7200
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA


US Initial Jobless Claims

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)