• USD/JPY has seen a 158.74-159.06 range, on Wednesday, according to EBS data

• In Asia, Japanese importer Tokyo fixed demand, and other bids propped up spot

• There is scope for an eventual recovery to eventually retest Monday's 159.86 peak

• Last week USD/JPY failed to sustain a break below 158.49 Fibo, which is a bear-trap

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a tech level but reverses: is usually a bullish sign

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)