Explore eFXplus Derived Data That Drive Results
A Data Partner of:
Refinitiv
-

Insights

Guest Access

 
-

Subscriber Access

 
-
All
EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Christopher Romano  —  Sep 29 - 12:30 PM
  • EUR/USD bears pushed the pair down to 0.9636 on EBS overnight

  • Buyers emerged however as broad based US$ selling ensued

  • EUR/USD rallied into positive territory, broke Wednesday's high

  • Rally stalls short of 0.9800 & 10-DMA but pair up +0.56% on the day

  • 2nd daily bull hammer formed in as many days, implies shorts losing control

  • Daily RSI rising & not overbought, implies s-t upside momentum in place

  • A long lower wick is now in place on September's monthly candle

  • Broader down trend is intact but EUR/USD shorts may get squeezed further

  • For more click on FXBUZ



Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 29 - 11:35 AM

Citi discusses its expectations for the BoE policy trajectory.

"Citi Economics says Wednesday’s gilt intervention is in their view unattractive, but necessary. With adverse, self-perpetuating dynamics beginning to take hold, the Bank has justifiably chosen to step in as market maker of last resort. The dimensions of the scheme make clear this is a liquidity insurance measure. The intervention provides crucial space for the government to now set out its medium-term plans. As we see it, the ball is now very much in Chancellor Kwarteng’s court," Citi notes.

"We expect a substantial fiscal announcement now in the week of the 11 October. If the government is able to meaningfully re-assure the markets, the pressure on gilts could ease. If not, the Bank is still likely to face a Faustian bargain between a sharp revaluation of gilts and a further selloff in sterling. We expect a hike of 100bps in November, but there may well be more," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Sep 29 - 09:40 AM
  • Cable reaches 1.0980 after extending north from 1.0764 (early London low)

  • 1.0980 is highest level this week (1.0539-1.0916 was Wednesday's range)

  • 1.0897 was Ldn am high, following CNH intervention report news nL1N3100RM

  • 1.1274 was last Friday's high, before UK fiscal event torpedoed the pound

  • Bookie shortens odds for another UK PM change pre-2023 to 7/1 nL1N310103

  • UK Q2 balance of payments data due Friday at 0600 GMT nL1N310195

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 29 - 10:00 AM

CIBC Research discuses its reaction to today's Canada adv GDP print for July/Aug.

"Canadian economy slowed to a snail's pace at the start of Q3, but that was at least better than initial estimates had suggested. The 0.1% gain in GDP during July was better than the small decline estimated in the advance report and expected by the consensus," CIBC notes. 

"With July and August combined showing no material advance in the Canadian economy, Q3 GDP is tracking just under a 1% annualized growth pace. That's well below the Bank of Canada's July forecast of 2%, although the monthly industry figures and subsequent expenditure data don't always line up. With inflation still high, policymakers are likely to press ahead with another rate hike next month. However, signs of consumer spending weakening even in some service industries, and job vacancy rates starting to come down from previously elevated levels, should see the Bank then take a pause to more fully assess how growth and inflation are responding to higher interest rates," CIBC adds. 

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 29 - 09:30 AM

Bank of America Global Research made a round of G10 FX revisions into Q4.

"Markets are heading into Q4 in particularly bumpy fashion. On the relatively more conventional side, persistence in elevated core inflation is pushing the Fed into a faster, steeper, and more extended rate hiking cycle, and pushing USD higher across the board in the process. But on the geopolitical front, concerns over Ukraine as well as the European energy situation continue to grow," BofA notes. 

"Consequently, we adjust our G10 FX forecasts , led by shifting lower our EUR-USD profile with a 0.95 target for the end of the year. We have already pushed up USD-JPY and USD-CAD, and now look for GBP-USD to move towards parity at the end of the year. Even though we do not look for a new multi-year secular trend to the upside, the dollar is likely to stay at multi-decade highs for the near and medium-term, as per our forecasts," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Christopher Romano  —  Sep 29 - 07:20 AM
  • AUD/USD fell overnight; rise in US rates EDH3, US$ give shorts a boost

  • Pair tests short-term structural support in 0.6435/40 zone, 0.64355 hit

  • Risk improves a bit; equities ESv1, copper HGv1 bounce off their lows

  • US$ sellers emerge; USD/CNH drop extends, pair near 7.1300 in early NY

  • AUD/USD neared 0.6480, opened NY near 0.6475, still down -0.71% for now

  • Daily bull hammer forms, 2nd in as many days; implies shorts losing control

  • RSIs imply downside momentum; above 0.6535/40 gives longs more control

  • Fed's Mester, Daly & US claims, Q2 GDP, Aug PCE are event. Data risks in NY

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Sep 29 - 06:05 AM
  • Cable rises to 1.0897 (intra-day high) as CNH jumps vs USD on Reuters report

  • China's state banks told to stock up for yuan intervention offshore-sources

  • See: nL1N3100Q5. 7.2668 was USD/CNH all-time high Wednesday nL1N3100H1

  • 1.0764 was intra-day low for GBP/USD in early London trade nL1N3100HB

  • UK PM Truss defends her tax cut plan nL8N3101HZnL8N3101O1nL1N3100O0

  • 1.0916 was Wednesday's GBP/USD high (1.0934 = Monday's intra-week peak)

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Sep 29 - 05:15 AM

It looks like it will be a case of when, not if, the pound falls to parity against the dollar - if British Prime Minister Liz Truss continues to reject a U-turn on her government's fiscal policy.

Asked during an interview on BBC local radio Thursday if it was time to reverse the mini-budget, Truss said "No, it isn't."

GBP/USD has traded sub-1.10 through the week-to-date, after plunging through 1.10 for the first time since 1985 last Friday on the back of the tax-cutting plans unveiled by Truss's finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng.

Kwarteng is due to address the annual Conservative Party conference on Monday, with Truss scheduled to deliver the closing speech on Wednesday.

Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney added his weight to criticism of the UK government's tax-slashing agenda on Thursday, saying that it complicates the BoE's inflation fight.

Gilt yields rose again on Thursday, a day after falling sharply when the BoE revived its bond-buying programme to restore order after the UK fiscal plans triggered financial chaos.

Related comments: nL1N30Z0NNnL1N30Y0K1nL1N2Z00HJ

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Sep 29 - 03:35 AM
  • USD/JPY last week collapsed from the new 24-year 145.90 (EBS) high

  • Spot found support at 140.31, before making recovery attempts

  • That drop was limited by the rising kijun line, that is now at 141.05

  • Our bid is at 143.20, that is above the tenkan line at 143.11

  • Fourteen-day momentum remains positive, points to an eventual 145.90 retest

  • Tenkan and kijun lines are positively aligned, reinforcing the bull market

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. Previous update nL1N30Z0GJ

  • EUR/JPY range has been 139.43-140.32, on Thursday, according to EBS prices

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Sep 29 - 03:05 AM
  • 1.0764 marks the cable low since Wednesday's high of 1.0916 (at 1725 GMT)

  • Rise to 1.0916 aided by profit-taking on USD longs amid U.S. equity gains

  • See: nL1N30Z2SS. 1.0539 was Wednesday's low (at 1126 GMT) nL1N30Z0Y4

  • Wednesday saw BoE move to calm gilt market nL8N30Z338nL8N30Z1XT

  • More: nL8N30Z5BG. Kwarteng clings on after UK market rout nL8N30Z3ZO

  • Ex-BoE boss says UK tax cuts under-cutting BoE inflation fight nL8N310145

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Sep 29 - 01:50 AM
  • Big Wednesday swings leaves the up-trend damaged but alive

  • We have a counter trend short from 0.8990, just in the money

  • Risk is for a resumption of the underlying trend

  • Game changing levels at 0.8860 Wed low and 0.8853 10DMA line

  • Studies mixed with RSI still rising and bullish 14-day momentum fading

  • We target 0.8840 with a stop at 0.9075

    For more click on FXBUZ
















Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Sep 29 - 01:35 AM
  • EUR/USD: 0.9700 (201M), 0.9720-25 (1.4BLN), 0.9750 (1.45BLN)

  • 0.9780 (275M), 0.9810 (435M)

  • USD/JPY: 144.25-28 (310M), 144.90-00 (1.07BLN), 146.00 (301M

  • USD/CHF: 0.9700 (365M), 0.9900 (1.1BLN). EUR/CHF: 0.9380 (649M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8825 (679M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6610 (1.02BLN), 0.6640-50 (496M)

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Sep 28 - 11:50 PM

  • Trades down 0.9%, at the base of a 1.0786-1.0888 range - modest D3 flow

  • EUR/GBP +0.4% - scepticism that BoE and Gov't can coordinate policy builds

  • BoE can buy time, but PM Truss must produce a credible policy initiative

  • August UK car output climbed - soaring costs to fuel inflation nB8N2F205C

  • Daily momentum studies conflict, 21 day Bollinger bands head lower

  • 5, 10 & 21 day, week and month moving averages fall - negative setup

  • Bias remains lower while 1.1072 falling 10 DMA caps on the close

  • Wednesday's bounce relieved over sold signals - room to fall

    For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Sep 28 - 09:45 PM

  • 0.8% lower, as U.S. Treasury yields bounce in Asia, 10yr UST +6bp 4.151%

  • Sterling leads the USD higher, with EUR/GBP up 0.25%, GBP/JPY -0.65%

  • Market is sceptical that Bank of England intervention is a short term cure

  • Credible UK government policy needed to reverse the sterling downtrend

  • Bankers sceptical of Fin Min Kwarteng policy in current turmoil nL8N30Z3VQ

  • Daily momentum studies conflict, 21 day Bollinger bands head lower

  • 5, 10 & 21 day, week and month moving averages fall - negative setup

  • Bias remains lower while 1.1057 falling 10 DMA caps on the close

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Sep 28 - 08:00 PM

  • Off 0.5% early after closing up 1.4%, as BoE bought bonds nL8N30Z338

  • BoE acted and markets have recovered, but the moves will only buy time

  • Credible UK government policy needed to reverse the sterling downtrend

  • August UK car output climbed, soaring costs to fuel inflation nB8N2F205C

  • Charts: bullish outside day unwinds oversold signals seen earlier this week

  • Daily momentum studies conflict, 21 day Bollinger bands head lower

  • 5, 10 & 21 day, week and month moving averages fall - negative setup

  • 1.0706 lower 21 day Bolli band and 1.1076 10 DMA initial support, resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Sep 28 - 07:15 PM

Corrects 8th line to include Thursday's option strikes

  • -0.15% after closing up 1.5%, supported by the lower USD, as risk recovered

  • BoE calmed markets, pledging to restore order by buying gilts nL8N30Z338

  • ECB policymakers are becoming hawkish - 75pt Oct hike viable nL1N30Z0LT

  • Yield spreads supported EUR - bund 10yr -10bp 2.155%, 10yr UST -23bp 3.737%

  • Charts; bullish outside day - 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages still slide

  • 21 day Bollinger bands fall - bearish setup, as over sold signals unwind

  • Early EZ 0.9535 low and NY 0.9751 high are initial support, resistance

  • 0.9720/25 795mln are the only close strikes for Thursday

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Sep 28 - 06:25 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 1.3% higher after rallying from 29-month low of 0.63635 Wed

  • Boosted by strong recovery in risk assets as BOE steps in to calm markets

  • Wall Street rallies 2%, US 10-year yield drops 32 bps, commodities recover

  • CNH recovers 1.7% from record low hit Wed on PBOC warning, boosts AUD

  • BoE buys bonds nL8N30Z338; PBOC warns against 'gambling' nL1N30Z0RM

  • Biden tells economic team to stay in touch with allies on mkts nFWN30Z1KE

  • Hawkish Fed expectations to limit AUD recovery nS0N30D03AnL1N30Z1EF

  • Resistance 0.6540-50, 0.6575-80, support 0.6470-80, 0.6445-50

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Content Admin  —  Sep 28 - 02:00 PM
  • USD/JPY dn 0.5% and again capped shy of popular 145 options expiries

  • Collapse in gilt yields on BoE rescue sent Tsy yields down as well

  • BOJ's stranglehold on JGB yields allowed Tsy-JGB yield spreads to fall

  • 2-yr and 10-yr Tsy-JGB yields spreads fell 20bp and 23bp, respectively

  • Market wariness about longs nearing 145.90 pre-intervention peak a factor

  • That and massive Q2 and 2022 gain consolidation coming into quarter-end

  • Dollar down more broadly as UK-related risk-off flows corrected

  • The 10-DMA, tenkan and 21-DMA props are at 143.68/10/2.89 last

  • Uptrend's intact while above the kijun, last at 141.04 on EBS

  • US PCE and NFP next major Fed, rates inputs nL1N30Z17K

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Sep 28 - 02:00 PM
  • EUR/USD hit 0.95355 on EBS in Europe then rallied & turned positive

  • Bank of England bond buying announcement nL8N30Z1XT drove risk-on

  • Goverment bond yields US2YT=RRDE2YT=RR & US$, yen fell sharply

  • EUR/JPY hit 140.28 on EBS; USD/CNH fell below 7.1860 before bouncing

  • Equity ESv1, commodity LCOc1 gains reinforced risk-on trading

  • EUR/USD broke the Sept. 26 & 27 highs, hit 0.97465 on EBS then dipped

  • Techs signals are mixed; daily RSI rising but monthly is falling

  • EUR/USD downside risks may hasten fall near 0.9000 nL1N30Z187

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Sep 28 - 01:45 PM
  • AUD/USD hit a 29-monthlow of 0.63635 then rallied sharply & turned positive

  • BOE announcement of bond buying nL8N30Z1XT drives riskier assets higher

  • Equities ESv1, commodities HGv1 rally; bond yields US2YT=RR sink

  • USD/CNH pierced 7.1860 in NY after 7.2675 was neared in Europe's morning

  • AUD/USD broke the Sept. 27 high, neared the Sept. 26 high, hit 0.65295

  • Daily bull hammer formed, daily RSI diverged; are concerns for shorts

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 28 - 02:00 PM

Danske Research maintains a short EUR/AUD exposure in spot targeting a move towards 1.30.

"AUD/USD continued its rapid decline yesterday amid the weak risk sentiment and rising recession fears. Australian terms-of-trade have remained stable over the past week despite the decline in oil prices, as early signs of recovering demand from China have supported prices of key Australian export commodities, such as iron ore and coal, and as such the weakening even against EUR appears somewhat overdone.

"Nevertheless, while for now we stick to our recent trade recommendation to go short EUR/AUD, we acknowledge that the near-term volatility could continue to put further downside pressure on broad commodity FX, including AUD," Danske adds. 

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Sep 28 - 01:25 PM
  • GBP$ soars off early NorAm low, +1.4% to 1.0886; NorAm range 1.0893-1.0539

  • Initial whipsaw after BoE says will prop up gilt mkt leads to higher GBP

  • BoE to buy 65 billion pounds of UK bonds to stem rout nL8N30Z2QQ

  • GBP$ stabilizes for now after BoE takes crisis action on gilts nL1N30Z1GH

  • Pair rises back w/in daily Bolli envelope (1.2120-1.0850)

  • Bulls eye res at 1.1033, 50% Fib of 1.1738-1.0327; then 10-DMA 1.1140

  • Support 55-HMA at 1.0735, Wed low 1.0539, Monday's 2022 37-yr low 1.0327

  • Bond-buys at odds with BoE hike regime may temper further gains

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 28 - 11:15 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses the outlook after last week's BoJ intervention. BofA likes long USD/JPY targeting a move towards 150.

"MoF may have sold ca. $25bn in USD/JPY. Japan's reserves held $136bn in deposits and estimated ca. $150bn in <1yr securities. Hurdle for intervention may rise if MoF depletes these liquid assets. Intervention could smooth out USD/JPY's rise at best, but is unlikely to stop or reverse the uptrend," BofA notes. 

"We still expect USD/JPY to grind higher toward 150 as FX intervention is unlikely to be able to offset the widened interest rate spread . We would not sell JPY against European or Asian currencies near-term as these markets have idiosyncratic risks and in the case of Europe, they have smaller FX reserves than Japan But we think the USD, not the JPY, will be the currency to be bought during market stress unless the stress forces the Fed to pivot, as USD provides attractive carry in addition to safety,"BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Christopher Romano  —  Sep 28 - 09:40 AM

EUR/USD traded near flat on Wednesday after erasing much of its overnight fall as risk improved on Bank of England bond market intervention nL8N30Z1XT, but options, yield spreads and technicals could drive a test of 0.9000 once 0.9500 breaks.

EUR/USD risk reversals EUR1MRR=FN indicate options investors are readying for a drop as vol premiums for puts over calls has increased further.

The dollar's yield advantage over euro is significant and will remain so unless the Fed takes a less hawkish stance and markets price in a lower terminal rate EDH3.

The ECB, despite hawkish rhetoric, may have to take a less hawkish stance as growth concerns increase, which may lead to a lower terminal rate FEIU3.

Technicals highlight downside risks.
EUR/USD is consolidating losses from the Sept.
20-26 fall while in the 0.9525-0.9710 zone.
The bearish consolidation signals reinforces bear signs from falling daily and monthly RSIs, which indicate downside momentum remains.

A break of 0.9500 should trigger stop selling.
Monthly charts indicate support near 0.9300, but that may be a speed bump that only delays an eventual fall toward the psychological 0.9000 level.

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Page 1 2 3 4 5 6

Subscription

  • eFXplus
  • End-user license agreement (EULA)

About

  • About
  • Contact Us

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
© 2022 eFXdata · All Rights Reserved
!