Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs raises its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,300/oz (from $3,100) and the forecast range to $3,250–$3,520, maintaining its long position on gold. The bullish outlook is driven by strong central bank demand, structural supply constraints, and persistent macro/geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Forecast Raised, Bullish View Reaffirmed 📈

• New end-2025 target: $3,300/oz (prior: $3,100)

• Updated forecast range: $3,250–$3,520/oz

• Long gold trade recommendation reiterated

2️⃣ Two Potential Dip-Triggers Not Seen as Long-Term Threats ⚠️

• A Russia-Ukraine peace deal could prompt speculative liquidation but won’t dent structural demand.

• A sharp equity sell-off may lead to temporary margin-driven gold selling, but is seen as a buying opportunity.

3️⃣ Structural Demand Remains Strong 🔒

• Russian gold exports remain robust through rerouting, while central bank demand stays elevated amid rising geopolitical risks.

• Newly approved gold allocations for Chinese insurers (~280t) could provide consistent demand on price dips.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs sees strong fundamental and strategic demand continuing to support gold prices, even in the face of temporary volatility. With structural supply tightness, central bank buying, and growing institutional interest, the bank upgrades its forecast and stays long gold into 2025, targeting $3,300/oz with upside toward $3,520.