Sterling has been in a 1.3532-1.3647 holding pattern this week, but may be poised for a breakout as a couple of major risk events approach.
The often volatile U.S. jobs data on Friday could prove directional for the U.S.
dollar and thus GBP/USD. The Reuters poll forecast is for a headline 500,000 jobs gain, but a downside miss is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's intention to taper QE nL1N2R31KD, so yields should only ease.
Treasury yields will jump on a big number, but will the USD rise with yields or sell off on safe-haven flows? Probably the latter.
A potential major positive for sterling would be a constructive UK response to a 'far-reaching' Northern Ireland package the European Union plans to present next week nL1N2R30IK.
Rising energy prices and supply chain issues amid fears of tight electricity supply suggest the UK may face a tough winter nL1N2R30HO.
The last thing Britain needs is increased trade friction with its biggest market, but the government remains fixated on 'sovereignty' issues nL8N2R01M9.
Technically, GBP/USD momentum studies, 5, 10 and 21 daily moving averages conflict, and 21-day Bollinger bands slide - the bias remains with the primary downtrend while the 1.3661 21 DMA caps.
The move targets another test of 1.3419, 38.2% of the May 2020 to June 2021 rise.
A sustained 1.3661 break would instead target a test of the falling 1.3892 upper Bollinger band.
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