Synopsis:

ANZ argues that the Swiss franc (CHF) continues to act as the ultimate safe haven FX, pushing to decade highs versus the USD as US policy uncertainty weighs on the dollar. However, the risk of SNB intervention or a shift back to negative rates remains if CHF strength persists.

Key Points:

‘Certified Haven FX’:
• The CHF continues to strengthen, driven by safe haven flows amid US policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
• It has outperformed despite the SNB’s recent decision to hold policy rates at 0%, highlighting its haven status.

SNB policy reaction function:
• At the June meeting, the bar for negative rates was raised compared to prior cycles — the SNB is reluctant to reimpose negative rates despite the strong CHF dragging headline CPI negative.
• Short-end Swiss yields are already pricing in some easing risk, having turned negative.

Currency strength vs. inflation:
• A stronger CHF often lowers Swiss CPI, especially given Switzerland’s heavy reliance on imported goods.
• The CHF real effective exchange rate historically leads changes in headline CPI.
• The SNB’s latest CPI forecast is flat for Q2 and only +0.1% YoY in Q3, so any meaningful downside surprises could revive easing speculation.

Lean against excessive strength:
• ANZ notes that for now, so long as Swiss inflation does not underperform the SNB’s forecast, the central bank is unlikely to loosen further.
• This implies CHF strength can persist — but traders should watch for signs of excessive appreciation, which could trigger either verbal or actual intervention.

Conclusion:

CHF remains the ‘certified haven FX’, supported by global risk hedging and the USD’s diminishing appeal. But given the SNB’s inflation-sensitive policy approach, the franc’s persistent strength could still face limits if Swiss CPI underperforms — or if the SNB deems the currency’s appreciation excessive relative to its policy goals. For now, leaning against runaway CHF strength is the tactical call.

By CHRIS TAKUDZWA MURONZI

HARARE, July 9 (Reuters) - Soaring prices are driving Zimbabwe's gold output and income, but the government's foreign currency retention rules are eating into producers' earnings, the country's mining industry body said.

The price of gold has surged more than $800 since the start of the year, reaching a peak of $3,500 an ounce in April before easing to current levels around $3,300 an ounce. The price rally has been mostly driven by central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in the global economy.

Zimbabwe's gold export earnings increased to $740 million during the first five months of this year, up 25% year on year. Its output was up 43% year on year at 20 metric tons in the six months to June, official data shows.

However, a rule requiring exporters to retain only 70% of their earnings in U.S. dollars while converting the balance to a volatile local currency is straining miners.

Critics of the policy say the local currency is overvalued, resulting in miners losing significant income when their foreign exchange earnings are converted.

Zimbabwe has an acute foreign currency shortage and uses part of the proceeds from exports of minerals to fund vital imports such as electricity and grain.

Most mining companies are struggling to meet their own import needs despite earning foreign currency because most suppliers of goods and services demand payment only in foreign currency, Chamber of Mines President John Musekiwa told Reuters.

Zimbabwe reintroduced its local currency in 2019, a decade after abandoning it for foreign currencies to tame hyperinflation. The local currency has again proved volatile, suffering a 43% devaluation last September, and is shunned in many domestic transactions, including by government departments.

Currently, miners pay 50% of their taxes and royalties in foreign currency and would want to pay those expenses in local currency.

(Reporting by Chris Takudzwa Muronzi; Editing by Nelson Banya and Mark Porter)

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole highlights that EUR/USD may be vulnerable to disappointments as optimism around a possible US–EU trade deal appears increasingly priced in.

Key Points:

Trade deal optimism priced in
• Recent official European comments have hinted that a US–EU trade deal “in principle” could be announced imminently.
• This growing optimism has underpinned EUR/USD strength in recent weeks.

Risk of disappointment
• Given that EUR/USD has already rallied on these expectations, any delay, lack of concrete details, or a less market-friendly outcome could trigger a sell-off.

Focus on tariff risks
• FX markets will also watch for any fresh tariff threats or “tape-bombs” that could dampen risk sentiment and weigh on EUR/USD.

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole advises caution: while the trade deal headlines have been a tailwind, they believe many positives are now fully reflected in EUR/USD levels. This leaves the pair vulnerable to disappointment, especially if trade talks fail to deliver a decisive breakthrough.

GBP/USD bulls are being encouraged following recent developments in UK fiscal policy and upcoming Fed minutes.

The pair rallied from its NorAm session low of 1.3574 to a high of 1.3620, buoyed by a normalization in UK gilt prices after the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee (FPC) provided reassurance against fiscal instability.

The pound has faced significant pressure recently, largely due to concerns regarding the UK government's indecision on welfare cuts and the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) warning about the fragile state of public finances post-COVID. However, the FPC's optimistic assessment of the resilience of British households and the domestic banking system has helped alleviate some of these fears.

With geopolitical risks receding, market attention is shifting towards central bank policies and global trade dynamics. Today's release of the Federal Reserve minutes is highly anticipated, as traders seek insights into potential rate cuts. While Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have emphasized the need for more data before making any decisions, the possibility of a dovish shift could influence the market.

Despite a somewhat improved UK fiscal outlook, the overall economic uncertainty and the Fed's dominance in the market landscape suggest that GBP/USD may struggle to break through significant resistance levels above 1.3787, especially with a relatively weak UK economy. The phrase "don't fight the Fed" resonates as traders await clearer signals from upcoming data.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs expects today’s release of the June FOMC minutes to provide valuable insights into the split in the 2025 rate outlook and more detail on the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy framework review.

Key Points:

Split on rate cuts
• The June dot plot showed a narrow 10–9 majority favoring two rate cuts in 2025.
• The minutes may clarify what conditions would prompt a shift — specifically, what data or developments would convince the majority to start cutting this year.

Framework review insights
• Goldman expects the minutes to add context to the Fed’s internal discussion about its framework strategy.
• The May minutes signaled that the Fed will likely return to flexible inflation targeting (FIT) as its primary approach — moving away from the flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) adopted in 2020.
• However, the Fed is expected to keep the option of a make-up strategy for times when rates hit the zero lower bound.

Guidance for markets
• Any signals on how the Committee is weighing incoming inflation, tariffs, and labor market data will help markets assess the probability of a cut this year.
• Clarity on the framework review will shape longer-term expectations about how the Fed will react to inflation overshoots or undershoots in the next cycle.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs sees the minutes as an opportunity to better understand the narrow divide within the Committee, the near-term reaction function for cuts, and how the Fed might refine its framework — all of which are crucial for markets pricing the path of rates into 2025 and beyond.

Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley expects the FOMC Minutes from the June meeting to provide clues about what’s driving the split in the Fed’s dot plot — especially the divide between members projecting no rate cuts versus those projecting two cuts in 2025.

Key Points:

Focus on the bifurcation
• The June dots showed a notable divergence — some FOMC members see no cuts this year, while others expect two. The minutes should shed light on what is motivating this split.

Timing of clarity on tariffs and inflation
• Chair Powell has said the Fed expects to see the inflationary effects of tariffs materialize over the summer. Morgan Stanley will look for any insights on how much weight members are giving these effects, and when they expect more data clarity.

What would trigger a consensus for cuts?
• It will be important to see whether some participants would need to see more than soft inflation — for example, a clear rise in the unemployment rate — to support resuming the easing cycle.

Flexibility of each camp
• Any detail about how willing the hawkish or dovish camps are to adjust their outlooks if the data evolve differently could help markets gauge the odds of a September or December cut.

Conclusion:

Morgan Stanley expects the minutes to clarify the key conditions that could shift the balance on the Fed’s policy path — whether lack of tariff-driven inflation alone is sufficient, or whether labor market weakness must also appear.

• Offers above 1.3600 capped ascent extension from 1.3528 (2-week low Tuesday)

• 1.3607 = Ldn am high. 1.3579 = subsequent low (1.3566 was Asia low)

• Minutes from the June 17-18 Fed meeting will be released at 1800 GMT

• On June 20, Fed's Waller said rate cuts should be considered by July

• Waller in mix to be next Fed chair. Trump says steep copper tariffs in store

• BoE sees ongoing financial stability risks. UK May GDP data due on Friday

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

July 9 (Reuters) - Despite near-term setbacks, FX should prepare for a huge EUR/USD battle at 1.2000, a break above which could spark an even bigger extension higher to test key technical resistance.

EUR/USD is steady as markets cautiously weighed the likelihood that the European Union would not receive a tariff letter and could secure exemptions from the U.S. baseline rate of 10%, EU sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

For two weeks in a row, EUR/USD ended up above the 1.1683 level, a 76.4% retrace of the 1.2349 to 0.9528 (2021 to 2022) EBS drop, which is a very bullish sign. The 14-week momentum remains positive, also reinforcing the bullish market structure.

There is scope for spot to eventually probe the 1.2000 psychological level where option barriers are located, a break above which would unmask the 1.2349 peak of 2021. However, a weekly close back below the 1.1683 level would warn of a top.
Weekly Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Dollar hit a more than 2-wk high vs yen, trade war intensifies

• Trump's tariff deadline delay brings hope, confusion

• FX traders may have soured on the yen

• USD/JPY has risen from 146.51 to 147.19, on Wednesday, EBS data shows

• Spot could climb to test a 148.54 retrace level

• 148.54 level, a 76.4% retrace of the 151.21 to 139.89 (March to April) drop

• Nikkei ends higher on weaker yen, profit-taking limits gains

• 30, 60-day log correlations between USD/JPY, EUR/JPY remains high

Daily Chart:


Correlation Chart:

• Shares in Italy's cable maker Prysmian rise as much as 2.9% after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would impose a 50% tariff on imported copper

• "Tariffs on copper in the U.S. could have a positive effect for Prysmian," said a company spokesperson

• Citi highlights in a note Prysmian as a relative tariff winner

• "Our U.S. business is well positioned thanks to its vertical integration in the copper space, including Encore Wire," the spokesperson says

• Jefferies earmarks in a note copper inflation as generally positive for cable manufacturers, reflected in price increases and benefitting margins specifically in the U.S. low voltage business (electrification)

• According to Citi, its domestic, vertically integrated set-up in copper gives it a competitive edge compared to smaller players

• By 0725 GMT, stock up 2.1%, dropping 1.4% YTD

(Reporting by Romolo Tosiani, Giulio Piovaccari)

• The EUR/USD rally became stretched when pair reached 2025 peak at 1.1830

• Subsequently EUR/USD has dropped to 1.1682

• Targets for minor corrections of May-Jul rise are 1.1650 and 1.1538

• Centre of 20-day Bollinger Bands is 1.1652

• Dips during rise from 1.1065 to 1.1830 have remained shallow

• Shallow dips suggest the positioning of traders will support a bigger rise

• $16 bln bet on euro rising is far less than the record $31 bln long position

• The US dollar and the dollar index are very different

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable hits 1.3605 after extending north from 1.3528 (Tuesday's two-week low)

• Drop to 1.3528 was influenced by higher gilt yields and dollar buy-backs

• Resistance levels include 1.3647 (Tuesday's high) and 1.3690

• 1.3690 was low before UK PMQs on July 2 - events at which hurt sterling

• Penultimate PMQs before summer recess 1100-1130 GMT. UK May GDP data Friday

• Trump says steep copper tariffs in store. Will Hassett succeed Powell?

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of India's Hindustan Copper down 2.5%, trims YTD gains to 7%

• Copper prices outside U.S. dropped on Wednesday after President Trump said he will announce a 50% tariff on the brown metal [MET/L]

• Peers also drop, with Vedanta slipping as much as 1.4% to a 2-week low and Hindalco shedding 1.6%

(Reporting by Hritam Mukherjee in Bengaluru)

• Trades off 0.2% with the U.S. dollar up 0.2%, led by USD/JPY +0.35%

• UK companies should be legally required to disclose major cyberattacks - M&S

• 10-yr gilt auction today is key for UK risk appetite after recent volatility

• Charts - 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages coil, momentum studies fall

• 21-day Bollinger bands contract - daily chart shows no significant bias

• Key supports: Yesterday's 1.3528 low then the 1.3406 lower 21-day Bolli band

• Resistance levels: 1.3681 July 4th top, then 1.3787 2025 high on Tuesday

• Close below yesterday's 1.3528 low would target the 1.3370 June base
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• The RBNZ held rates on hold at 3.25%, but the RBNZ expects further cuts

• 0#NZDIRPR priced no change in rates at 77.71% ahead of the rate decision

• The NZD traded unchanged at 0.6000 into the rate decision, now 0.6002

• Charts show daily momentum studies, plus 5, 10 & 21 DMAs slipping

• 21-day Bollinger bands also head lower, which is a bearish setup

• Targets 0.5973, 0.618% June/July rise, then 0.5957 lower 21-day Bolli band

• Yesterday's 0.6035 high then this week's 0.6056 top are initial resistance

• Support around 0.5960 should prove resilient
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall 4.5% to their lowest since April 10

• Gold prices slipped more than 1% on Tuesday, as optimism over trade deals between the U.S. and its trading partners weighed on safe-haven flows, with a firmer U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields adding further pressure [GOL/]

• Sector heavyweights Newmont Corp and Evolution Mining fall 4.9% and 7.5%, respectively; both stocks among top losers on the benchmark , which is down 0.7%

• Northern Star Resources falls 4.9% to A$16.12

• Eight out of the top 10 losers on the benchmark are gold miners

• YTD, AXGD up nearly 30% vs 30.1% gain in AXJO

(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• +0.05% after closing up 0.15% with the U.S. dollar down 0.05% - modest moves

• Modest moves with investors cautious, as the US policy blitz continues

• There is no first-tier EZ data today, so the USD and headlines lead EUR

• Charts - daily momentum studies ease, 21-day Bollinger bands contract

• 10 & 21-day moving averages climb - daily charts remain net positive

• The first significant resistance is last week's 1.1830 2025 high

• Yesterday's 1.1682 low, then the 1.1645 21-DMA, are the initial supports

• A close below the 1.1645 21-DMA would end the May/July topside bias

• 1.1700 3.154 BLN are the only significant close July 9th strikes
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD holds gains made Tue after RBA's surprise hold on rates

• Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser in a speech Wed makes no mention on policy

• Focus to remain on U.S. tariff announcements as uncertainty lingers

• Trump says at least seven trade-related announcements coming Wed morning

• US could collect $300 bln in tariff revenue this year, Treasury chief says

• Trump says U.S. to impose 50% tariff on copper imports, copper futures jump

• Says BRICS nations to get 10% tariff 'pretty soon'

• June 24th, 0.6456 low and the 0.6440 lower 21-day Bolli are initial support

• Resistance levels: yesterday's 0.6559 high, then the 0.6589 and 2025 top
Trump announces fresh tariffs:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Steady after closing up 0.55%, as the RBA left rates on hold - USD off 0.05%

• Trump says US to impose 50% tariff on copper imports - copper futures jumped

• The continued changes and volatility of US tariff proposals spook investors

• No tier 1 Aus data - NZ rate decision could move the Kiwi, and drag the AUD

• Charts, mixed 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages, horizontal 21-day Bolli bands

• Daily momentum studies ease - a neutral setup at familiar levels

• June 24th, 0.6456 low and the 0.6440 lower 21-day Bolli are initial support

• Resistance levels: yesterday's 0.6559 high, then the 0.6589 and 2025 top
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Danske Bank sees further upside for EUR/USD as upcoming changes in the US Federal Reserve leadership may erode investor confidence in policy continuity. Combined with political risks, tariff headlines, and a weaker USD trend, Danske remains bullish on the euro tactically and strategically.

Key Points:

Fed leadership transition seen as USD-negative
• Danske notes that Adriana Kugler’s term is up in January, and Jerome Powell’s chair term ends in May 2026 — with markets expecting President Trump to replace him.
• If Powell leaves the Board entirely, it would reduce policy experience at the Fed to its lowest in two decades, which historically correlates with USD weakness.

Institutional knowledge gap matters
• Danske’s historical research shows that the USD typically softens when Fed Board experience drops — investors lose some confidence in policy signaling, communication, and predictability.

Policy transition comes amid fragile USD backdrop
• Even if the handover is orderly, this loss of familiarity could weigh on the dollar at a time when it is already under pressure from political uncertainty, trade risks, and an expected softening in US growth.

EUR/USD remains in an uptrend
• Danske remains bullish both tactically and strategically, expecting any near-term corrections to be shallow and likely to be used as buying opportunities.

Conclusion:

Danske argues that Fed turnover could become another headwind for the USD at a critical time, reinforcing their constructive EUR/USD view. Combined with the broader policy and macro environment, they see more upside ahead for the euro as markets navigate upcoming appointments and policy direction at the Fed.

• Analysts at Morningstar raise fair value estimates for Australian gold miners, as bullion prices surge driven by safe-haven demand amid concerns over tariffs, geopolitical tensions and the U.S. fiscal deficit

• Morningstar increases its fair value estimate for Australia's Perseus Mining by 9% to A$2.55 per share; raises fair value for Evolution Mining by 6% to A$3.80

• Investment research firm ups fair estimate for ASX-listed shares of Newmont Corp by 5% to $58.00; keeps fair value unchanged for Northern Star Resources at A$13

• "We assume gold averages US$3,460 per ounce from 2025 to 2027 based on the futures curve, up from US$3,170" - Morningstar

• YTD, NST shares up 9.7%, while PRU, EVN and NEM shares rise between 37% and 63%, as of last close
(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

(Updates)

• Shares of U.S. copper miner Freeport-McMoRan rises 4.1% to $46.97

• U.S. President Donald Trump says he will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, but did not say when the tariff would take effect

• COMEX copper jumps over 10% to hit a

record high above

$12,330 a metric ton

• U.S.-listed shares of global mining giants Rio Tinto

rise ~2% and BHP Group up marginally

• iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF up 1.7%

• However, Canadian miners fall: Hudbay Minerals down marginally, Teck Resources down 1.6% and Ero Copper down 2.4%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon and Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

Synopsis:
SocGen notes that despite the FX market’s attempt to settle into a summer range, chaotic policy developments and a steady stream of unpredictable headlines could prevent calm from lasting — especially for GBP/JPY. They see scope for GBP/JPY to drop towards 193–194 if headline risk intensifies.

Key Points:

FX market is ignoring rate differentials — for now
• Rate spreads suggest moves that currencies aren’t making: EUR/USD “has plenty of room to fall” yet remains resilient.
• USD/JPY is locked in a broad but stable range of 139–149 for over three months.

Europe’s improving long-term outlook props up the euro and regional peers
• EUR, PLN, CZK, SEK all benefit from the relative optimism about Europe’s medium-term outlook — even if that optimism starts from a low base.

GBP/JPY vulnerable to policy chaos and headline risk
• SocGen argues the steady stream of confusing or contradictory political developments — what they call “head-scratching headlines” — could spill over into more volatile FX moves.
• GBP/JPY looks particularly exposed, with a slide back down to 193–194 likely if the news flow rattles investor confidence further.

Summertime calm unlikely to last
• The FX market wants stability but SocGen doubts it will hold, given chaotic policy-making and background geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Conclusion:

SocGen’s takeaway is that the FX market’s summer calm is fragile — especially for GBP/JPY. If the flow of confusing UK policy news persists, they expect GBP/JPY to trade lower towards the 193–194 region.

• Ether rallied 2525.12-2600.20 Tuesday, was up +1.17% into Europe's close

• Gains made despite gains in US yields , USD/CNH & gold's drop

• Despite the recent price action technicals still suggest upsdie risks remain

• Daily and monthly RSIs are rising which implies upward momentum

• Ehter's hold above the10-, 50- & 200-DMAs reinforces the bullish signals

• Monthly chart indicates consolildation of gains off April low, another bull sign
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)