Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs expects October nonfarm payrolls to rise by 95k, affected by hurricanes and strikes. Although disruptions may dampen growth, the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.1%, while wage growth moderates slightly after recent gains.

Key Points:

• Nonfarm payrolls projected to increase by 95k, below the 3-month average of 186k, with a 40-50k reduction due to hurricanes and a 41k drag from recent strikes.
• Unemployment rate anticipated to hold steady at 4.1%, with recent immigration’s impact on the labor force now mostly absorbed.
• Average hourly earnings forecasted to grow 0.3% m/m (4.0% y/y), boosted by temporary hurricane effects but offset by a moderation in supervisory earnings.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs expects a muted payroll gain in October, impacted by external disruptions yet stable on core indicators. Wage growth appears steady, with the employment cost index reflecting a slight moderation in unionized worker adjustments, suggesting gradual normalization in labor costs.