EUR/USD could make gains this month, something it has done in 14 of the past 21 Decembers, including every one since 2017.
While seasonality trends should not be considered in isolation, when combined with other factors they can be a useful tool.
EUR/USD remains at risk from a bear trap that has been set under the 1.1290 Fibonacci level, 61.8% of the 1.0636 to 1.2349 (2020 to 2021) rise.
For two weeks in a row EUR/USD broke but failed to close under this key level.
A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a tech level but then reverses, and is usually a bullish sign.
This week's 1.1387 high, set on Tuesday, should act as an early barometer for EUR/USD's direction.
A break above here will signal a bigger recovery in spot into the turn of the year.
A month-end close above the December 1.1335 EBS open is needed to keep December's positive streak intact.
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