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ANZ Research adopts a negative bias on GBP/USD in the near-term.
"From an FX standpoint, the main question goes beyond Starmer's time in office to whether any new leader will uphold the UK's fiscal policies and keep investor confidence in government bonds. Yields on longer term UK debt have risen last week, which is important as increased borrowing costs limit the government's financial flexibility. This episode is different from the Truss crisis in 2022, but parallels are being drawn. No formal policy changes or unfunded fiscal packages have emerged this time. The issue is primarily political, with fiscal risks dependent on future decisions,": ANZ notes.
"Overall, our outlook for GBP/USD is negative in the near term. Any upward movement is likely to be limited unless political risks diminish and gilt yields decline. GBP/USD has broken below the key moving average and key support now lies around 1.329," ANZ adds.