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Apr 24 - 09:55 AM

JPY: Low Chance Of YCC Tweaks At This Week's BoJ; We Are Tactically Bearish On JPY - Goldman Sachs

By eFXdata  —  Apr 24 - 08:56 AM

Goldman Sachs Research adopts a tactical bearish bias on JPY into this week's BoJ policy meeting.

"Speculation on BoJ policy normalization has picked up once again ahead of the April 27-28 meeting (Governor Ueda’s first at the helm). That said, our economists continue to think that the probability of a change at the upcoming meeting seems low, especially with the risk of a US recession appearing somewhat larger, though a YCC adjustment at the June meeting—as the initial move in a two-step exit—remains our baseline," GS notes. 

"The combination of our bearish view on rates, our belief that risks to the US terminal rate still look skewed to the upside, and our expectation for another hold from the BoJ leaves us more tactically negative on the Yen as the market seems vulnerable to an incremental upgrade on growth, now with the asymmetric response to downside data surprises having already begun to fade," GS adds. 

Goldman Sachs Research/Market Commentary


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