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Aug 30 - 10:55 PM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-In Times Of EUR/USD Uncertainty, The Range Is Key

By Andrew M Spencer  —  Aug 30 - 09:25 PM

The fundamental backdrop suggests a period of EUR/USD consolidation rather than a strong trend in the coming weeks and the charts agree, with the 21-day Bollinger bands likely to define the range.

With the dust settling on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's cautious speech at Jackson Hole nL1N2PY2PM, U.S. markets will likely be driven by data and the coronavirus in coming weeks, which suggests choppy ranges for the USD.

Europe is struggling with the Delta variant, though the vaccination rollout has accelerated nF9N2N601F, and markets await confirmation of the timing and pace of the economic recovery. Current data is mixed nL8N2Q1291, which supports EUR range trading.
German elections on Sept 26 are also a source of uncertainty nL1N2Q10VP.

EUR/USD often swings between the upper and lower 21-day Bollinger bands during periods without a strong trend.
There was a topside swing in July and a downside one in August.

Friday's sustained break above the 21-day moving average, currently at 1.1761, after a rejection of the lower 21-day Bollinger band on Aug 19 and 20, targets a test of the falling upper 21-day band at 1.1857.

Other signals are neutral, daily momentum studies show little bias while 5, 10 and 21 DMAs conflict.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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