EUR/USD may test the lower end of the current range or even break lower, shifting the expected range, but the scope of a potential decline is not big.
Buying here may be too rich, but soon risk-reward will better favour those buying and seeking a move back to the upper limits of a range that's currently close to 1.12-1.16.
Should EUR/USD break the base of the range, it will fall below the 61.8 percent retracement of the 2016-2018 rise.
That will make a steeper long-term decline more likely, but it's still prudent to look to sell strength and not to sell aggressively with moves to the downside.
Sentiment and the direction of EUR/USD are still likely to swing whenever focus flips between eurozone and U.S. slowdowns.
Where rates strongly back a continuing fall, spec betting favours regular bounces whenever the net short position grows too large.
EUR/USD weekly chart Click here