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Apr 11 - 05:55 PM

USD/JPY - A Whisker Away From 2015'S Peak And Highest Since 2002 Pre-CPI

By Randolph Donney  —  Apr 11 - 02:45 PM

  • USD/JPY's 125.77 high on EBS Monday is just shy of 2015's 125.86 peak

  • Yen down roughly a full percent against USD, EUR, GBP and CHF

  • BOJ's YCC cap on 10-yr JGB yields at 0.25% makes yen a sitting duck

  • Risk was off Monday, which did little for yen, its haven status lost

  • Tsy curve flattening capped 2-yr Tsy-JGB yield spreads, but 10s widened

  • The 2-yr yield spreads are at highest in 3 years, Fed's f/c hikes priced in

  • Market eyeing CPI Tues for Fed hike expectations, yield spreads lift

  • 125.86 is also a 161.8% Fibo off Mar. 31 low, so dip eyed if it holds

  • Secondary target is at 126.33, the 161.8% Fibo off 2021's base

  • ECB Thur eyed for any guidance on H2 hikes, B/S run down

  • EUR/JPY again nearing Feb's and Feb 2018's 137.51 peaks nL2N2W911L

  • BOJ not talking intervention or rate hikes to stop yen's rot yet

    For more click on FXBUZ

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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