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Feb 02 - 11:55 AM

USD/JPY - Great US Data May Drive USD/JPY To Uncomfortably High Level For Japan

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Feb 02 - 09:40 AM
  • NFPs way above expectations in Jan and big upside revisions too

  • USD/JPY jumps in reaction reaching 148.06 vs 145.90 after Jan Fed

  • Chance of March rate cut now much diminished and chance May reduced

  • Probability Mar cut 20%, May down to 75%

  • Looks like those long $ have three months before any change impacts

  • Traders have halved bets against JPY in past two months

  • Less drag on yen from spec bets, good reason for investors to sell it

  • A move over 149.17 may see fast rise toward prior intervention levels

  • If easing cycles spark gambling EUR/JPY might fly nL1N3EN0RM

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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