Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs expects a modest but resilient US labor market in April, with payrolls rising by 140k and the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%, despite early concerns around trade war and policy uncertainty.

Key Points:

• Job Growth Forecast:

  • Nonfarm payrolls expected at +140k (vs. consensus +130k).

  • Government hiring likely weak: -15k in federal jobs, +15k in state and local.

• Unemployment Rate & Wages:

  • Unemployment rate forecast to remain at 4.2%.

  • Average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.25% m/m, keeping y/y at ~3.86%, moderated by negative calendar effects.

• Policy Uncertainty Not Yet Visible:

  • Goldman believes April is too early to observe major impacts from tariffs or policy-related hiring slowdowns.

Conclusion:

Goldman expects the April jobs report to show slowing, not stalling, labor market momentum. Wage inflation remains elevated but not excessive, and broader macro impacts from policy uncertainty likely won’t emerge until later months.