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Jul 06 - 10:55 AM

Goldman Sachs: Trend in USD/JPY Should Extend Even with Add'l Rounds of Intervention; Revising Our Forecasts Higher

By eFXdata  —  Jul 06 - 09:39 AM

Goldman Sachs Research revises its USD/JPY forecasts higher.

"We see no reason for the upward trend in USD/JPY to stop without an unexpected negative US growth shock or a BoJ pivot towards more aggressive policy tightening...Intervention can slow the move and buy time for a potential shift in the macro that then leads to sustained Yen appreciation. But without that, the impact ultimately proves short-lived with diminishing effect, and we think that either a recession or more rapid BoJ hikes look unlikely over the coming year.

That implies that the trend higher in USD/JPY should extend, even if there are additional rounds of intervention that successfully reset the exchange rate to lower levels and suppress vol for some time," GS notes.

"Therefore, we have revised up our forecasts to 162, 163, 165 in 3, 6, 12 months (vs. 160, 158, 155 previously).," GS adds.

Source:
Goldman Sachs Research/Market Commentary
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