Danske Research discusses its expectations for the BoE policy meeting on Thursday.
"We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to hike the Bank Rate (Policy Rate) by 50bp on 2 February bringing it to 4.00%. Importantly, we consider it a closer call between 50bp and 25bp than what markets are pricing and the distribution of analyst expectations would suggest. That said, we believe the latest data releases support a continued forceful response by the BoE which favours a slightly more aggressive 50bp hike compared to the 25bp alternative," Danske notes.
"In our base case of a dovish 50bp hike, we expect EUR/GBP to move slightly lower upon announcement, but reverse higher on the back of a dovish statement and press conference. In its statement we expect the BoE to highlight the dire state of the UK economy lending support to our call that market pricing is too aggressive currently pricing a peak in the Bank Rate at 4.40% by June 2023. Combined with the expectation of a hawkish 50bp hike by the ECB later in the afternoon, we expect EUR/GBP to move higher during the afternoon, ending the day ca. ½ figure higher than the opening levels," Danske adds.