Bank of America Global Research discusses its reaction to yesterday's Fed Powell speech and US economic outlook.
"Chair Powell indicated the time for a slower pace of rate hikes is likely to come at the December meeting. The Fed's outlook for a soft landing in the economy is heavily dependent on supply elasticity as opposed to demand restraint," BofA notes.
"We are less optimistic that supply conditions will improve meaningfully enough to avoid a mild recession in 2023. Our outlook for a return to 2% inflation requires a greater squeezing of demand through tighter monetary policy. We do not think a deep recession is needed, but we do believe a mild recession is more likely than not and is what may be required to put inflation on a sustainable downward trajectory," BofA adds.