EUR/USD has traded in a range close to 1.12-1.15 for months, and yesterday option vols reached their lowest in around five years, a sign the quiet period will continue.
If it's quiet, carry trades and risk appetite are usually buoyant and that means the euro, which is the world's most liquid funding currency, will be sold nL1N21Q04R nL1N21N0HG.
EUR/USD should continue to be a range play, but inevitably the range will drop.
The 1.12-1.15 range is not set in stone; it is the area of greater volume traded.
Those betting on levels that hold have concentrated their efforts on 1.11-1.16.
A break either side of that range should boost vols, which may affect risk-taking.
That said, should moves unfold at a snail's pace, as they have been, traders have ample time to hedge, which will cushion the reaction to any break.
A glacially paced slide should see a 1.11-1.14 range develop next, perhaps 1.10-1.13 by the end of 2019.