CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's US CPI print for the month of June.
"Price pressures were scorching hot in the US in June, as surging demand combined with supply chain issues to lead the way higher. Total monthly prices rose by 0.9%, well above the consensus forecast of 0.5%, leaving annual inflation at 5.4%. A sharp rise in used car prices accounted for over one-third of that monthly gain, adding to the jump in energy prices. Excluding energy and food, prices also increased by 0.9% on the month, above the consensus expectation of 0.4%, leaving annual core inflation at 4.5%, close to a thirty-year high. While used car prices were a large part of that rise, new vehicles, airfares, and apparel also contributed to the rise, as some of these categories were hit early on in the pandemic," CIBC notes.
"Another upside surprise in inflation suggests more widespread impacts of supply chain issues, and raises further questions about how quickly these factors will fade amidst strong demand. Ultimately, with economic slack expected to be eliminated later this year, price pressures should be firm enough through 2022 to see the Fed hike rates in the second half of that year," CIBC adds.