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Feb 02 - 08:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-FX Traders Beware: EUR/USD Usually Drops In February

By Martin Miller  —  Feb 02 - 06:40 AM

Those that are bearish EUR/USD will hope it sticks to its typical seasonal trend this month.
EUR/USD has fallen in February for 14 of the past 24 years, including each February since 2017.

Seasonality should not be considered in isolation, but combined with other factors it can be a useful tool.

EUR/USD set up bear trap under the 1.0822 Fibo, a 76.4% retrace of the 1.0724-1.1139 Dec EBS rise and 1.0794 Fibo, a 50% retrace of 1.0448-1.1139 (Oct-Dec) gain.
A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a tech level but then reverses and is usually bullish.
However the upside will likely be limited by cloud supply that currently spans 1.0828-1.0980.

As Fed rates are expected to remain well above ECB rates for the foreseeable future, according to the LSEG Interest Rate Probability App, that should continue to exert downward pressure on EUR/USD. Related comment.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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