By eFXdata — Jul 06 - 10:00 AM
Societe Generale Research maintains a bearish bias on the EUR in the near-term.
"The big drivers of markets are evolving slowly. Europe’s energy dependency on Russia is falling, but not fast enough to avoid recession if the pipeline is closed. If that happens, EUR/USD will likely lose another 10% or so," SocGen notes.
"Take away the gas risk and the euro would be a lot stronger, but we can’t do that, any more than we can take away concerns about the ECB’s anti-fragmentation policy...The euro loses out, remains effectively unbuyable this summer. It’s so unbuyable that a major political crisis in the UK isn’t enough to drive EUR/GBP higher!," SocGen adds.
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary