Explore eFXplus Derived Data That Drive Results
A Data Partner of:
Refinitiv
Oct 01 - 06:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-FX Fear Gauges Show A Greater Risk Of EUR/USD Losses

By Richard Pace  —  Oct 01 - 04:40 AM

EUR/USD has been pinned to the 1.11's since trading at a new 13-month high above 1.1200 in late August, but the directional FX risk premium in FX option markets shows a greater risk of EUR/USD setbacks than of extended gains.

Risk reversals are options that benefit from FX volatility in a particular direction and will consequently demand a volatility risk premium for related strikes.
The benchmark 1-month expiry EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals changed from a EUR put to a EUR call premium (downside to upside strikes) on the initial EUR/USD break to 1.1201 in late August.
It reached a new 4-year high at 0.3 EUR calls over puts, but struggled to retain that premium, reverting to EUR puts over calls (downside strikes).

This shows that the options market perceives a greater risk of EUR/USD trading lower and increasing FX volatility, as opposed to extending recent highs above 1.1200 to achieve the same result.

There's typically a correlation between implied volatility and the 1-month expiry risk reversal, whereby implied volatility will increase if the FX spot price moves in the direction of the risk reversals premium.
In the case of EUR/USD, that's currently to its downside.

The early London EUR/USD setback to the low 1.11's endorses this correlation, with the benchmark 1-month expiry implied volatility consequently trading from 6.1 to 6.25 as the 1-month 25 delta risk reversals trade at new 6-week highs for downside over upside strikes at 0.2.

There are some huge impending FX option strike expiries which could help to keep EUR/USD in the lower 1.11's through Friday's NFP data.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

Subscription

  • eFXplus
  • End-user license agreement (EULA)

About

  • About
  • Contact Us

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
© 2024 eFXdata · All Rights Reserved
!