Nomura Research discusses the BoJ policy trajectory into next week's April policy meeting,

"Markets are range-bound as they await direct US-Iran talks, with USD/JPY stuck around 159. Oil prices are still elevated, keeping JPY weakness pressures high. Whether a clear direction toward normalizing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will emerge from the direct talks will be crucial for the near-term JPY direction," Nomura notes.

"Expectations for a BOJ rate hike in April have fallen sharply, with media reports suggesting a wait-and-see stance for now. The BOJ’s decision may hinge on whether it can deliver a “hawkish hold” that prevents further JPY selling.

If USD/JPY moves above 160 before the April meeting, the BOJ may need to sound more hawkish toward June and beyond, while intervention by Japanese authorities will remain an option as well," Nomura adds.