MUFG Research discusses its expectations for this week's RBA September policy meeting.
"The more immediate policy focus will be the RBA’s meeting tomorrow. It has the potential to be more of market mover for the Aussie than normal given the outcome is more uncertain. According to Bloomberg, ten out of sixteen Australian economists expect the RBA to delay their QE tapering plans in response to further disruption from COVID restrictions over the past month. However, it is not guaranteed that the RBA have changed their view from last month when they decided to stick to plans to begin QE tapering this month by slowing weekly purchases to AUD4 billion from AUD5 billion," MUFG notes.
"We are sticking to our view that the RBA should delay QE tapering plans. However, the balance of risks to the Aussie appears more skewed to the upside . A surprise decision to stick to tapering plans would have a bigger impact and reinforce the Aussie’s recent rebound," MUFG adds.