TD Research discusses its expectations for tomorrow's US CPI print for the month of August.
"We expect inflation to continue slowing on a monthly basis as we approach the end of the year, as excess household savings continue to gradually dwindle, and supply constraints ease, but for now the data remains strong on a historical basis. Our estimate for August is -0.2%/0.3% m/m for headline/core CPI (we see more risk of 0.2% for the latter). On a y/y basis, we look for inflation to slow to 8.0% y/y for the headline, but to pick up slightly to 6.0% for the core," TD notes.
"Looking ahead: For headline CPI we forecast 6.6% y/y in 22Q4, largely unchanged vs 21Q4. For the core CPI, we forecast 5.6% y/y in 22Q4, up from 5.0% in 21Q4. We expect inflation to slow further in 2023 but to a still above-target pace," TD adds.