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Nov 03 - 07:55 AM

USD/CAD - COMMENT-A Biden Win Could Upend USD/CAD's Usual November Gains

By Martin Miller  —  Nov 03 - 05:55 AM

USD/CAD usually rises in November, but the U.S. election and technical outlook point to downside risks this month.

USD/CAD has risen in 14 of the past 20 Novembers, including each November since 2013.
Seasonal analysis should not be considered in isolation, but it has to be corroborated by other factors.

Americans head to the polls on Tuesday to conclude a bitter and divisive U.S. election campaign, as Republican President Donald Trump seeks to overcome Democratic rival Joe Biden's lead in opinion polls to win four more years in the White House nL1N2HP0DS.

A Democratic sweep in the U.S. election is expected to bolster prospects for the loonie nL1N2HL31U, pushing USD/CAD lower.
A Trump win, an inconclusive result, or a Biden win without control of the Senate would be likely to lead to USD/CAD gains.

USD/CAD 14-week momentum has been negative for 20 weeks in a row, reinforcing USD/CAD's underlying bearish market structure.
That means the currency pair is likely to buck the positive November seasonal trend.

For more click on FXBUZ


USD/CAD Seasonality Chart: Click here

Weekly Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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