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Morgan Stanley Research previews the June FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
"We expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged in June, with no dissents. In the statement, we expect new recognition of faster payroll gains. We also expect the FOMC to drop the easing bias, instead saying something like "in considering any adjustments to the target range..." In the SEP, we expect the median dot to show no cuts this year, one cut in 2027, and one cut in 2028. First press conferences can be uneven. There's a greater chance of miscommunication and subsequent correction, in our view," MS notes.
"We expect Warsh to describe an uncertain economic outlook, to point out that heightened uncertainty argues for patience in policymaking, and to say that the FOMC believes the current stance of policy is appropriate. How much guidance he is willing to give is an important question, as he has leaned against guidance in commentary in the past," MS adds.