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RBC Research discusses the scope for SNB intervention in the medium-term.
"CHF has been one of the worst performing currencies in the G10 over the past month as risk sentiment surrounding the Iran War has improved and FX intervention has gone from a risk to reality. For the past year CHF has strengthened strongly, as geopolitical uncertainty has once again showcased its safe haven attraction that caused it to behave as the dominant risk-off currency in the G10. With Trump still in the White House for three more years, it is hard to imagine a period of geopolitical serenity emerging," RBC notes.
"We have long argued that there has been a need for the SNB to intervene to tackle persistent currency strength and imported deflation. However, it appears that this round of intervention may be more reactive in response to event-driven appreciation, rather than proactive. Therefore, we remain skeptical that in its current form SNB intervention can move CHF persistently lower. The current data we have is too lagged to show significant intervention so far. By February at least there was little sign of action," RBC adds.