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Aug 09 - 08:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Bulls Should Consider A Cheap Option Hedge

By Richard Pace  —  Aug 09 - 06:55 AM

A huge long EUR/USD futures position and a need for euro zone data to outperform the U.S. leaves EUR/USD vulnerable to a setback, but there are simple options that can hedge that risk and might be more attractive than a simple cash stop.

EUR put/USD call options would increase in value if EUR/USD fell and they only risk an up-front premium.
These might suit EUR/USD longs who are wary of volatility, as the position would remain live if EUR/USD did fall, but would allow the holder to sell EUR/USD at the predetermined strike and expiry if EUR/USD didn't recover.
A one-month expiry EUR put/USD call with the strike being current spot at 1.0975 and one-month implied volatility at 6.7, would cost around 70 USD pips, or cheaper if the sell strike is lower.

Alternatively there's a EUR put/USD call option with knock-out trigger below the strike.
That would benefit/protect from a more limited EUR/USD setback before expiry and is a significantly cheaper option.
For example - one-month expiry 1.0975 EUR put/USD call option with a knock-out trigger at 1.08 costs 12 USD pips, or with a 1.07 knock-out trigger it's 35 USD pips.

Where the regular EUR put option allows the holder to sell spot at the strike at expiry with an unlimited profit potential, those options with the attached knock-out trigger limit the profit potential to the trigger level, which if touched before expiry, kills the entire option, hence the discounted premium.

FX Options show the extent of U.S. CPI volatility risk to FX on Thursday.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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