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Dec 13 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY - Bulls Eye Key Fibo, Daily Cloud Top Supports
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 13 - 04:00 AM
  • USD/JPY bulls remain focused on the 113.61 Fibonacci level
  • 113.61 Fibo is 76.4% retrace of the 114.03 to 112.23 recent (EBS) drop
  • A break and daily close above 113.61 Fibo will accelerate gains further up
  • The November 28 114.03 peak will come into focus
  • On the downside is solid support, including the daily cloud top at 112.95
  • Our previous 112.68 long's profit stop was hit at 113.15 nL1N1YH099

USD/JPY Trader:

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 13 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Gains Likely To Encounter Headwind At Daily Cloud
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 13 - 03:00 AM
  • EUR/USD traders: mind the growing risk of a squeeze nL1N1YH0BX
  • But recovery attempts will likely be stymied by the thick daily cloud
  • The daily cloud currently spans the 1.1432-1.1559 region
  • Longs have been reeling since spot broke but failed above 1.1424 Fibo
  • This has set up a classic "bull trap" nL1N1YG0A1
  • 1.1424 Fibo is a 76.4 percent of the 1.1216 to 1.1472 recent (EBS) fall

EUR/USD Trader:

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 13 - 03:48 AM
GBP/USD - Bullish Key Day Wed But Needs To Overcome 10DMA
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 13 - 02:10 AM
  • Key day Wed and a squeeze to 1.2672 but bear market holding: 10DMA at 1.2676
  • Raised offer to 1.2835, ahead Dec 4's 1.2840 high: 50% fibo at 1.2827
  • The rise above Tuesday's 1.2638 high gives momentum to the bulls
  • Puts the Nov-Dec highs, just above 1.3000, into play
  • Last consecutive 6-week drop culminated in a 5% reversal: a warning to bears
  • Above 1.2928 Nov 22 high to negate short-term bear strategy

GBP/USD Trader:

EUR/GBP Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 13 - 02:36 AM
EUR/USD - Consolidates In Asia Ahead Of ECB
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 10:35 PM
  • EUR/USD barely moving in Asia, as market awaits ECB decision later today
  • Range through the morning session 1.1366/77 and unchanged into the afternoon
  • ECB widely expected to announce end of bond buying programme later today
  • Key to EUR/USD direction will be tone of Draghi's press conference
  • Until recently ECB said weak data was temporary - any change will be noted
  • Support at recent daily lows around 1.1305 and break targets 1.1267
  • Resistance at 55-day MA, which comes in at 1.1415 today

eur/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 13 - 01:24 AM
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 10:14 PM

EUR/USD:  Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Dip below 1.1300 would not be surprising but break of 1.1265 seems unlikely.

EUR recovered and the bottom of our expected 1.1300/1.1440 consolidation range at 1.1300 remains unchallenged (low of 1.1311). Despite the recovery, the underlying tone remains soft and we continue to see chance for EUR to dip below 1.1300. However, as highlighted yesterday, a break of the next support at 1.1265 seems unlikely.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Downward momentum has waned, GBP is likely to consolidate for now.

While we highlighted since Tuesday (11 Dec, spot at 1.2565) “the next support at 1.2400 may not come so soon”, the strong surge in GBP (on the back of Brexit headlines) that took out the 1.2650 ‘key resistance’ came a surprise. Downward momentum has waned with the strong rebound but it is premature to expect a sustained recovery. GBP is more likely to consolidate and trade sideways for now, likely within a broad 1.2480/1.2800.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): AUD is still under pressure but a break of 0.7130 would come as a surprise. No change in view.

AUD traded within a relatively narrow range between 0.7185 and 0.7225 yesterday and registered an ‘inside day’. The price action offers no fresh clue and we continue to hold the view the recent sharp decline in AUD is running ahead of itself. As highlighted in recent updates, while AUD is still under pressure, a break of the major 0.7130 support would come as a surprise. All in, AUD has to reclaim the 0.7270 ‘key resistance’ (no change in level) in order to indicate that the current weak phase has stabilized.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): NZD has moved into a consolidation phase.

NZD dipped briefly to 0.6825 yesterday, not far from the bottom of our expected 0.6820/0.6930 consolidation range. The quick rebound from the low reinforces our current view wherein NZD is trading in a consolidation phase for now (same view since last Friday, 07 Dec). Looking further ahead, the weakened underlying tone suggest higher risk of a clear break below 0.6820 but for the next one week or so, we do not expect the late-November low near 0.6755 to come into the picture.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD has moved into a consolidation phase.

USD traded in a narrow range between 113.13 and 113.51 yesterday before settling little changed at 113.27 (-0.08%). The price action offers no fresh clues and we continue to hold the view that the current movement of USD is part of a consolidation phase (between 112.40 and 113.90).

UOB Research/Market Commentary
Dec 13 - 12:12 AM
AUD/USD - Grinding Higher In Buoyant Asia
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 10:10 PM
  • AXJ equity index +0.90%; S&P futures around 0.50% higher; Lon Copper +0.50%
  • Buoyant risk assets underpinning AUD/USD - with high so far at 0.7231
  • AUD/JPY buying also giving support with cross up 0.30% since US close
  • Signs that US/China trade tensions easing are fuelling risk rally in Asia
  • Key resistance at 0.7255/60 and break would shift pressure to the topside
  • 10-day MA, 21-daty MA and 38.2 of 0.7394/0.7170 between 0.7255/60
  • Support at Wednesday 0.7199 low & break would shift pressure to the downside

aud/usd 2 Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 12 - 09:48 PM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-Bullish AUD/USD Case Starting To Build
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 07:20 PM

The tide might be turning in favour of a year-end AUD/USD rally, which could force the unwinding of short positions built up when U.S.-China trade war fears combined with soft Australian growth data to put the pair under extreme pressure.
A small but growing number of analysts are coming around to the belief that there will be some resolution in the trade war - even if it isn't a comprehensive one.
Since the Dec.
1 meeting between U.S. President Trump and China President Xi, Chinese officials have consistently sounded optimistic on reaching a deal before the March 1 deadline.
The Click here suggesting China may alter their "Made in China 2025" strategy to increase access for foreign companies could soften up some of the White House trade hawks nL3N1YH44S.
The signals from the White House have been mixed, but Trump's latest comments suggest the political advantages of making a deal with China outweigh the economic consequences of escalating the trade war nL1N1YG2I5.
The AUD/USD faces stiff resistance at 0.7250-60 where the 38.2 Fibo of the December drop converges with the 10- and 21-day moving averages.
A close above that window could be an early warning of a decent end-of-year rally.

aud/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 12 - 08:36 PM
GBP/USD - The Dust Settles, But UK Uncertainty Still Rules
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 06:40 PM
  • PM May won the vote of support, but 200/117 majority is no mandate
  • The threat of no Brexit has receded, but uncertainty reigns nL8N1YH15G
  • Brexit options remain, May's deal, a potential referendum or no deal
  • Asia will be cautious amid current GBP volatility, in case of more news
  • Despite yesterday's bounce, daily & weekly 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head south
  • This is a bearish trending setup - close above 1.2677 10 DMA would undermine

gbp dec 13 Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 12 - 05:00 PM
EUR: ECB Likely To Confirm An End To QE By Month-End At Tomorrow's Meeting - Citi
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 02:55 PM

Citi discusses its expectations for tomorrow's ECB December policy meeting.

"The ECB meeting Thursday is likely to confirm an end to QE by month-end with staff projections (on euro zone growth and inflation) likely be in line with the ECB’s medium-term price stability mandate.

What about the forward guidance and the reinvestment policy? — Citi analysts are not expecting very much to be said on either issue, given the fairly wide range of plausible outcomes on a one-year horizon.

That said, Citi analysts believe that current market pricing for ECB rate hikes in 2019 is now very conservative at less than 7bp whereas Citi analysts look for the ECB to hike 15-20bp," Citi projects. 

Citi Research/Market Commentary
Dec 12 - 03:48 PM
EUR/USD - Gains Ahead Of ECB
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 01:40 PM
  • Potential progress on Italy's budget tighten IT-DE spreads
  • FR-DE and DE-US spreads tighten as well while the US$ trades heavy
  • EUR/USD lifts above 10- & 21-DMAs, still near middle of 1.1200-1.1500 range
  • Bulls tempered a bit as ECB meeting due, potential for a cautious Draghi
  • ECB projections could be lowered as well, if so euro should trade heavy
  • Market is very indecisive, 1.12/1.15 range might hold even after ECB & Fed

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 12 - 02:36 PM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-GBP/USD Rise Off 2018 Low May Be Selling Opportunity
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 10:35 AM

GBP/USD shorts are booking profits, boosting cable off its new 2018 low at 1.2477, ahead of this evening's Tory no-confidence vote, but the rebound may be short-lived.
Bookies nL1N1YH0SP are touting a May victory nL1N1YH0I4, and a large margin of victory is expected to boost GBP/USD. There are many obstacles on the charts for sterling.
First is 1.2659, corresponding to the daily Tenkan and Dec 4 low, then the 10-DMA at 1.2692, which has weighed on GBP/USD since mid-November.
Above the 10-DMA more significant resistance comes in at 1.2837 the 30-DMA, which has capped GBP/USD since November 15.
A move lower seems more likely, as even a victory in today's vote hardly removes substantial UK political or Brexit uncertainty.
There is still a high probability that May's Brexit deal will be voted down in parliament, which may lead to new elections, a delay in Article 50 nL8N1YH1VC or a second Brexit referendum nL3N1YG407.
Downside targets are 1.2324 -- the 23.6 percent Fib of 1.5022-1.1491, the post-Brexit high-low. Then there is 1.1983, the Jan 16 low.
IMM data GBPNETUSD= shows GBP short positions have been halved since late September provided opportunity for shorts to push GBP/USD lower still.

GBP Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 12 - 01:24 PM
USD/JPY: Sticking To S/T Bearish View Against A Break Above 113.70 - ING
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 11:00 AM

ING discusses USD/JPY technical outlook and maintains a tactical bearish bias against a break above 113.70.

"The daily chart shows a recovery, but as long as prices are not breaking the falling trend line above the 113.70 level we will stick to our short-term bearish view.

A test of the solid support area between the horizontal line around 111.70 and EMA-200 line at 111.63 should still be expected in the development of a bottom.

From here we should expect a rally towards the strong horizontal resistance area 114.45-115.50," ING notes. 

ING Research/Market Commentary
Dec 12 - 12:12 PM
USD/JPY - COMMENT-USD/JPY Bulls To Get A Dip To Buy After US Inflation
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 10:00 AM

An unexpected drop in average weekly earnings and a flat CPI nLLACNEEGG are working in concert with a bearish intraday setup for USD/JPY that could allow bulls to buy a dip near 113.
However, upside looks limited to roughly 114, despite signs the U.S. and China are scrambling for progress on a trade deal nL1N1YG0A9 nL3N1YG1A7.
Core CPI remaining firm at 2.2 percent y/y and money markets on Monday having priced out another Fed hike beyond one next week, along with 10bp of easing in 2020, should limit downside in Treasury yields and USD/JPY, which is driven by U.S. yields due to tiny JGB yield ranges amid BOJ QQE and yield curve control.
USD/JPY's 113.52 overnight high left prices overbought and at risk of retracing 38.2 percent of this week's rebound, at 113.03, right by Tuesday's low, the 200-HMA and hourly cloud top.
Initial support is by the kijun and 21-DMA at 113.21.
With major DM stocks markets and Treasury note yields rebounding from key supports, USD/JPY probably has room to test the downtrend line across Oct-Dec high at 113.93.
Hefty net spec IMM long positioning and heavy local offers near and above 114 reinforce the downtrend line.

Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 12 - 11:00 AM
USD: US CPI: Core Inflation Accelerated To 2.2% y/y - CIBC
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 08:46 AM

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's US CPI report for the month of November.

"Price pressures printed in line with expectations in November, with headline inflation reflecting weakness in oil prices, but core still registering a trend-like gain. Headline inflation was flat on the month, sending the annual rate down three ticks to 2.2% y/y while core inflation accelerated to 2.2% y/y as monthly price pressures advanced by 0.2%. The fall in the price of oil was also apparent in core components, including a fall in airline fares. However, shelter prices rose by 0.3%, which is a bit stronger than the advances seen in the prior two months and helped to offset the fall in airline fares.

The 2.2% core inflation figure suggests that the Fed's preffered measure of core price pressures, core PCE, should rise to be within a hair of their 2% target," CIBC notes. 

CIBC Research/Market Commentary
Dec 12 - 08:36 AM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-Sterling At A Cross-Road As Confidence Vote Approaches
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 06:20 AM

The pound was relatively stable after confirmation that UK Prime Minister Theresa May would face a vote of no confidence late Wednesday -- sterling consolidated above 1.2500 to the dollar -- but the market is looking at potential for heightened volatility after the vote.
Bearish guns are ready to fire should May fail, and GBP/USD could take a run at 1.20 nL1N1YH0CX.
However, option volatility readings are still some way off the levels seen before the Brexit referendum.
With the daily chart now hinting at scope for a decent adjustment, a May victory could see cable underpinned.
The over-riding Brexit factor will slow any sterling recovery, but a return to levels around 1.2650-1.2700 is possible.
Previous significant low from Dec 4 at 1.2659 is a viable recovery level and the 10-DMA at 1.2685 is close behind.

GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 12 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Traders: Mind The Growing Risk Of A Squeeze
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 05:00 AM

Those short of EUR/USD should be mindful of the growing risk of a short squeeze.
IMM data for the week ending Dec.
4 showed a futures market short an equivalent EUR/USD cash position of $7.6 billion, up from $6.9 billion the previous week.
EBS flow data since Dec.
4 shows even more euro shorts may have been established.
On Monday EUR/USD broke but failed to register a daily close above the 1.1424 Fibonacci, a 76.4 percent retrace of the recent (1.1216 to 1.1472 EBS) fall.
That sets up a classic bull trap, which has weakened the technical market structure but seen the market become even shorter.
The European Central Bank is widely expected to announce on Thursday the end of its bond buying programme Thursday.
But it is also likely to recognise slowing growth and recent poor economic data nL3N1YE0ZV.
Meanwhile, U.S. November CPI, retail sales and IP data loom nL1N1YE0CV.

EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

IMM Positions Chart: Click here

Daily Cloud Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 12 - 06:12 AM
GBP/USD - REFILE-BUZZ-GBP/USD April 2017 Low Calling But Some Bear Stress Noted
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 03:20 AM

Corrects fourth bullet

  • No respite for the pound with new 1.2477 trend lows
  • Pick up in 14-day bear momentum and stochs confirming Tues slide
  • However, 14-day RSI bull divergence hints at o/s values
  • Risk of a squeeze back inside the 30DMA bolli envelope, lower line 1.2520
  • Favour fading Tues 1.2638 high for trend continuation
  • Weeklies highlight patchy support until the 1.2365 Apr 2017 low

GBP/USD Trader:

EUR/GBP Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 12 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD's "bull Trap" Weighs And Puts The 2018 Low In Play
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 02:45 AM
  • EUR/USD broke but failed to register a daily close above the 1.1424 Fibo
  • 1.1424 Fibo is a 76.4 percent of the 1.1216 to 1.1472 recent (EBS) fall
  • This is a classic "bull trap" which has weakened the market structure
  • Growing risk for losses towards/below 30-day lower BB and 2018 1.1216 low
  • The 30-day lower bollinger-band is currently at 1.1262
  • EUR/USD "bull trap" above key Fibo means outlook now mixed nL1N1YG0A1

EUR/USD Trader:

Daily Cloud Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 12 - 03:48 AM
USD/JPY - Bulls Gear Up For Next Leg Higher Through Key Fibo
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 12 - 02:05 AM
  • USD/JPY bulls have registered a daily close above the 113.34 Fibo = bullish
  • 113.34 is a 61.8% retrace of the 114.03 to 112.23 recent (EBS) drop
  • Scope for a break above 113.61 Fibo, 76.4% of the same 114.03 to 112.23 fall
  • A daily close above 113.61 would unmask the 114.13/21 recent peaks
  • We remain long at 112.68 for 113.60, trailing stop raised to 113.15
  • USD/JPY sees biggest daily rise since Oct on Monday nL1N1YG0AG

USD/JPY Trader:

Daily Fibo Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Dec 12 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Support From Risk Rally Limited And Short-Lived
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 11 - 10:10 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.7204 and tracked higher through the morning
  • Risk assets rallied on Trump commenting that he may intervene in Huawei case
  • He said he would consider doing so if it would help with a trade deal
  • AUD/USD traded to 0.7230, as AXJ equity index rose above 1.0% at one stage
  • Sellers at 0.7230 capped and it slipped back to 0.7215 into the afternoon
  • A break above 0.7230 targets decent resistance at 0.7255/65
  • The 38.2 of 0.7394/0.7170 @ 0.7255 and 10 & 21-day MAs converge at 0.7262
  • Key support at 61.8 of 0.7022/0.7394 move at 0.7163

audusd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
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