Synopsis:
ING highlights unusually high conviction among market participants that EUR/USD will end 2025 in the 1.15–1.20 range. While ING's base case is more conservative, it acknowledges that the risks are tilted to the upside.
Key Points:
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Poll Highlights Market Optimism:
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57% of respondents expect EUR/USD to finish the year between 1.15 and 1.20.
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This is one of the strongest consensuses ING has seen in three years of running this poll.
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Previous polls typically showed a normal distribution around spot levels.
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ING's Baseline Forecast:
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EUR/USD seen trading in a 1.10–1.15 range through year-end.
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A delayed Fed easing cycle could give some residual support to the USD.
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Risks Skewed to the Upside:
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Given market sentiment and broader USD weakness, EUR appreciation risks are growing.
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ING acknowledges that the path to 1.20 is more plausible than before.
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Conclusion:
While ING maintains a cautious 1.10–1.15 range outlook, the firm flags a notable shift in market conviction that EUR/USD could break higher. A dovish Fed or strong Eurozone catalysts could easily tilt the pair toward 1.20.
