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Dec 02 - 11:55 AM

FX Options Wrap-EUR/USD 1.25? Big GBP Risk; USD/JPY Outlook

By Richard Pace  —  Dec 02 - 10:00 AM

More broad-based USD weakness fuelled the EUR/USD break of 1.2014 range highs and remaining option barriers/triggers late Tuesday, but those surrounding 1.2100-10 are said to be much bigger -- and hide a key technical break point that can open 1.2500 nL1N2II0LF.

EUR/USD has gained more than expected before 2021, increasing the need to cover topside risk.
Option volatility and topside premiums are increasing with spot -- one-month reached 1.0 above last week's 5.9 crisis low and one-month risk reversal 0.5 EUR calls over puts, but they'll need a 1.2100 break and extension to build on those gains.

European Union officials highlighted the lack of progress in post-Brexit trade negotiations.
GBP implied volatility is higher and one-month risk reversals have reached multi-month highs for GBP puts at 2.5, flagging the extent of perceived downside risk to GBP nL1N2II0XO.

USD/JPY downside risk reversals premiums eye long-term lows -- less perceived risk of spot falling, but a lack of outright topside demand suggests range trading will continue nL1N2II0SC.

For more click on FXBUZ

1-3-12-month GBP/USD risk reversals Click here

USD/JPY 1-month risk reversal Click here

EUR/USD 1-3-12-month implied volatility Click here

1-3-12-month EUR/USD risk reversals Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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