Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs expects core retail sales to rise in April as consumers frontloaded purchases ahead of impending tariffs, while headline retail sales are likely to remain flat due to weak auto sales and falling gas prices.

Key Points:

• Core retail sales forecast: +0.4% m/m, driven by precautionary spending ahead of expected tariff-related price increases.

• Headline retail sales forecast: Unchanged, as lower auto sales and gasoline prices offset strength elsewhere.

• Tariff impact emerging: Consumer behavior appears responsive to trade policy developments, with early signs of demand shifting forward.

Conclusion:

Goldman sees the April retail sales report as an early reflection of tariff-driven consumer behavior, supporting resilient core demand but masking it under flat headline numbers due to sector-specific drags.