Aug 13 (Reuters) - AUD/USD usually struggles in August and that could well be the case once again in 2026 due to two key technical factors.

While AUD/USD in August has dropped in 18 of the 26 years since 2000, or 69% of the time, seasonality cannot be considered in isolation and instead needs to be corroborated by other factors. AUD/USD has dropped from Wednesday's 0.7091 10-week peak even as the Reserve Bank of Australia talks up rate hike risks. That fall helped to leave a long upper shadow on Wednesday's candlestick and that points to a rejection of the upside and could well see a bigger drop in coming sessions.

Spot failed to sustain the recent trading above the 0.7072 level, a 50% retrace of the 0.7270 to 0.6867 (May to June) drop, setting up a bull trap which occurs when a market breaks above a technical level but subsequently reverses and is usually a bearish sign.
Daily Chart


AUD/USD Seasonality Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)