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Jul 13 - 10:55 AM

Credit Agricole: EUR/GBP Correction Close to Running out of Steam; 3 Reasons to Expect Recovery Towards 0.860

By eFXdata  —  Jul 13 - 10:15 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees a scope for a bullish recovery in EUR/GBP.

'"We believe that the latest EUR/GBP correction is close to running out of steam and expect the cross to recover back towards 0.860 in coming months because: (1) EUR/GBP is starting to look very cheap relative to its short-term fair value that we estimate on the basis of EUR-GBP rate spread and measures of relative sovereign credit risks among other drivers; (2) there is a risk that the Labour party could adopt left-wing policies after this week's change of guard at the helm that could shatter the calm in the gilt markets and hurt the GBP; and (3) the current market BoE outlook is too hawkish and the GBP should continue to lose its rate advantage over the EUR, in our view," CACIB notes.

"Focus this week will be on the UK GDP data for May, due on Thursday," CACIB adds.

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
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