For six weeks EUR/USD has put pressure on the 200-weekly moving average at 1.1313 but has scraped a close over that key point.
However, with the European Central Bank expected to tighten monetary policy at the end of the year putting the brakes on a plodding economy, EUR/USD may see a big drop after a close below that average.
Traders have recently bet the stock market wobble and an easing of global growth will prompt the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate rises, despite solid domestic data.
In contrast, the ECB is expected to end bond purchases and outline the timing of its first hike even with the economy weakening.
This comes as the UK is determined to split from the European Union, weakening the grouping.
Turkey, Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia who hope to join are witnessing Italy challenge the rules and Greece mulling emergency plans to save its banks which has raised the risk of a fourth EU rescue.
When the 200-WMA breaks properly moves are very big, so it's a good time to bet on another significant move.
EUR/USD weekly Click here