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Jan 09 - 12:55 PM

EUR/USD: Many Positives In The Price, Downside Risks Remain With S/T Fair Value Around 1.05 - Credit Agricole

By eFXdata  —  Jan 09 - 11:29 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a cautious bias on EUR/USD over the coming weeks.

"We are sceptical that the recent EUR/USD gains can continue. In particular, we worry that investors risk becoming complacent about the negative impact from the European energy crisis and the ECB tightening on the Eurozone growth outlook. They may also be too confident in the growth-positive impact from the post-Covid reopening of the Chinese economy," CACIB notes. 

"Furthermore, we think that investors are underestimating the Fed’s hawkish resolve in the face of a looming US recession. In turn, a more hawkish-than-expected FOMC can be detrimental for risk sentiment in a boost for the USD vs the EUR...We further note that the EUR is the biggest market long in G10 FX at present while EUR/USD is trading at a premium relative to its short-term fair value of 1.05," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary

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