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Oct 04 - 08:36 AM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-October's Effect Means AUD/USD Recovery May Overshoot
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 04 - 06:40 AM

Traders should be aware that AUD/USD has risen in 12 of the past 19 Octobers, meaning there's a structural advantage to being long this month.
In October, AUD/USD has closed up 0.5% on average, according to Refinitiv data.
Australian retail sales climbed in August, marking their biggest rise in six months and suggesting that recent interest rate cuts and tax rebates were helping to lift consumer spending -- but only up to a point nL3N26P0QL.
That has helped AUD/USD extend its recovery from the 2019 low of 0.6670 it reached this week after the RBA cut rates to a record low and signaled the possibility of more nL3N26M0SN.
Given the favourable seasonality, AUD/USD's recovery might easily overshoot the 0.6841 Fibo, a 23.6% retrace of the 0.7394 to 0.6670 (December 2018 to October 2019) fall.
Australia's open and export-heavy economy is vulnerable to trade tensions, so AUD/USD may be prone to big swings as a result of next week's U.S.-China trade talks nW1N26M00M.
Related comments nL2N26O084nL2N26M07BnL2N26N084


AUD/USD Seasonality Chart: Click here

Weekly Fibo Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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